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000
FXUS64 KMRX 200725
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.
WITH A WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE PLATEAU
AND VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO PROVIDE AN EXTRA BIT OF LIFT
TODAY...AND PERHAPS AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. BY AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...THIS
CONVECTION WILL WANE RESULTING IN A FAIRLY CALM AND DRY NIGHT ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...PEAKING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RATHER TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG
TERM...WHICH KEEPS TEMPS VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED TO DIURNAL ACTIVITY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR POPS. LACK OF A FOCUS OTHER THAN TERRAIN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
THE RULE...ALTHO MOISTURE DOES INCREASE BY MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
THIS INCREASES INSTABILITY TO MODERATE LEVELS OR HIGHER EACH
AFTERNOON...PLUS A POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE BY TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. 500 MB FLOW LOOKS QUITE DIFFLUENT BY THEN...WHICH
COULD EASILY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MCS ACTIVITY TO TRACK SE
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OF COURSE MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...SO MAIN CHANGE WAS TO TREND UP ON POPS TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES
(30 TO 40 PERCENT) BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFSX MOS POPS ARE A
BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMO...BUT I WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE
ANY FURTHER POP INCREASES.

FOR TEMPS...20/00Z GFSX MOS TEMPS WERE CONSISTENT WITH 19/12Z VALUES
AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED...UNTIL THE MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THAT POINT...I STAYED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE LOWER
90S MAX TEMPS OFFERED UP FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  65  90  66  88 /  20  20  20  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  64  88  65  88 /  20  20  20  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  63  88  64  88 /  20  20  20  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  58  85  57  86 /  20  20  20  20  10
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

AMP/TG