Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 230843 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 343 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong low pressure system is slowly drifting across the Southern Tennessee Valley this morning. This has brought with it some broad areas of moderate to heavy rain showers. In addition, due to the tight pressure gradient, some very gusty winds in the 40-45 mph range have been observed across the Southern Valley and Plateau. In fact, low pressure values of 984 mb and 987 mb have been observed in the Chattanooga metro around midnight. All in all, a very intense low pressure system. The main question to the immediate forecast is rainfall chances for the rest of the morning and later on through the day. Radar shows training of some moderate to locally heavy bands moving into the northern Valley and Plateau, which continue to be fed from activity across Central North Carolina. Elsewhere, a bulk of the precipitation has pushed north and west into Southern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. As the low pressure system shifts back to the ENE, am expecting an additional round of rain across most of the Central and Southern Valleys between 12-18Z, through total QPF during that period is lower than expected. Given the latest model obs and trends, feel good about higher PoPs across SW VA, far NE TN, and the East Tennessee Mtns through this evening, with gradual drying overnight as the low is slow to move away. As a result, the highest storm total precipitation will be along this area as well, with the potential for some localized flooding issues later on today should training continue. In addition to the precipitation, the aforementioned strong/gusty gradient winds will persist through the day across much of the Valley, and overnight across the Mountains. Thus, a Wind Advisory is in effect for most of the region to account for this. .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... After a prolonged period of unsettled but warm weather, conditions will gradually dry out and give way to more seasonal temperatures during the extended period. To start the period, some lingering rain showers will be possible across southwest Virginia Monday morning as the slow moving low pressure system finally pulls away from the forecast area. Skies will clear Tuesday into Tuesday night. Southwest flow on Wednesday ahead of a cold front will allow one more day of mild temperatures before cooler air settles into the region. The cold front itself will push through Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing increasing clouds and the chance for some showers. West to northwest flow takes over behind the frontal passage for the second half of the week as an upper level trough digs into the eastern US. This will provide for generally dry but cooler conditions across the southern half of the forecast area. Southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee will see a bit more active weather as successive weak shortwaves ripple through the trough. These clipper-type systems will not have very much moisture associated with them, but it should be enough to produce some orographic snow across the terrain of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. It`s too early to start talking amounts, but any accumulating snow should stick to the higher elevations. Have maintained slight chance PoPs through the weekend across this area to account for the snowfall potential. Temperatures for the second half of the week will feature highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 40 58 42 / 50 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 43 56 42 / 80 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 43 56 41 / 80 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 42 52 36 / 90 60 20 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn- Meigs-Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-West Polk. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for Blount Smoky Mountains- Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Tuesday for Johnson-Southeast Carter-Unicoi. VA...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ AMP/EMH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.