Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 310715 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED (LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT)...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEAKENS. WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL PLAN TO LOWER POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY DEVELOP. THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD THEN FURTHER DECREASE AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS... GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A FLATTENED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO KICK OFF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. ADDITIONALLY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND FAVORING THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT THE BEST DAYS FOR COVERAGE MAY BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE WASHING OUT ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A 20 TO 30 POP WARRANTED EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY /WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST HEADING TOWARD THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PLACE THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PERHAPS ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 70 93 71 / 50 30 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 69 91 69 / 50 30 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 87 69 91 69 / 60 30 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 66 87 63 / 50 40 20 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DMG/AMP

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