Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 060753 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 353 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AFTER ANOTHER EVENING OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLASH FLOODING SHOWERS WERE JUST ABOUT GONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS LINGERED IN A FEW SPOTS OVER NE TN AND SW VA. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS LOCATED MOSTLY IN AREAS STILL RECEIVING SOME LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AREAWIDE. SOME DRIER AIR WAS FINALLY WORKING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW THAT WAS STILL SPINNING NEAR THE WV...KY...VA INTERSECTION. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL WANT TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS IN EXTREME NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SO KEPT LIKELY POPS THERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY. CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY WITH ZONE ISSUANCE. ELSEWHERE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND WARMS UP AS UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO SHIFT EAST WHILE DRIER AIR MASS WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 NE WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER. NEAR AVERAGE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS VALLEYS WITH MORE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF NE TN FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DIE DOWN THIS EVENING SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO THE WET GROUND. SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP WORDING PATCHY. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE FROM CONVECTION MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...NORMAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN AN ISSUE FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING A RIDGE INTO THE AREA...HOLDING AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO KEEP US IN A DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20 TO 30 FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 70 90 72 / 20 20 30 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 69 87 70 / 20 20 30 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 69 87 70 / 20 20 30 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 63 85 67 / 50 20 30 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ TD/MJB

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