Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 032036 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 336 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S NORTHEAST HALF TO THE 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT BECOME STEADY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND WESTERN PART OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S AND CHANGE LITTLE AND POSSIBLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL INCH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. STRONG WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STAY STRONG. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NW BORDER. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE KY BORDER. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MESSY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COUPLED WITH ENCROACHMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE NW. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE OVER OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER ANY GIVEN AREA. HARDEST HIT AREAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER QPFS...THUS NW PLATEAU AND SW VA ESPECIALLY LEE AND WISE COUNTIES THERE. AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.. AND TODAY/S MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THAT ARRIVAL...COULD BE A TREND. SO CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIP IS LOW. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE PRECIP WANES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHETHER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS AROUND CHA/TYS/TRI WILL BE NOTABLY IMPACTED IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS TIME. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AND WILL INCLUDE THOSE METRO AREAS...BUT STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE EVENT ENDS THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE MONDAY/TUES TIME FRAME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 65 36 37 / 60 70 90 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 63 33 34 / 60 70 90 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 53 62 30 33 / 70 80 90 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 63 32 34 / 70 80 90 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER- HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX- LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER- SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN. FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN. VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ TD/GC

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