Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 200819 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AS UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST MOVES AWAY. SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT. GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODEL FORECASTS RELATIVELY CLOSE IN DEPICTION OF EXPECTED WEATHER DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WITH THE FIRST MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STAYED WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT STILL APPEARS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAINTAINED A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK COMPLETE WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 77 51 78 57 / 0 0 0 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 49 77 56 / 0 0 0 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 77 48 77 56 / 0 0 0 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 74 40 76 51 / 0 0 0 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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