Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 210809 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 400 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. MODELS STILL PROG RATHER HIGH CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED LIFT AS SHORT WAVE FEATURES SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THIS RIDGE AND ITS DRYING AND WARMING ABILITIES MAY KEEP SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE OUT OF MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WENT JUST A LITTLE BELOW MOS MAX TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE STAYING QUITE CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MINS TONIGHT. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE 850- 500 MB HIGH BEING CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST TN WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE N-NW FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. THE NAM TARGETS FRIDAY EVENING FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN NORTHERN AREAS FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE OF TIMING DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW DROPS...AND WILL GO WITH A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTING LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES. BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL TO THE WEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 72 96 73 / 20 20 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 71 93 73 / 30 20 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 71 93 72 / 30 20 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 66 89 68 / 50 30 40 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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