Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 290804 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 404 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL PRODUCE DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY JET PULLING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN THROUGH THE EAST TN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR SURGES BACK NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS OR STORMS. NAM MODEL SHOWS WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TN LATE SATURDAY WHICH MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES EAST. NAM MODEL THEN SHOWS MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST AND SURFACE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SW OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY MOSTLY 70S BUT ONLY MID 60S TO MID 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MILD LOWS EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WILL FALL TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE OVER ONE INCH WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SEVERAL WEEKS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 61 83 64 / 0 20 50 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 60 81 64 / 0 10 50 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 85 61 80 63 / 0 20 60 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 53 78 57 / 0 20 50 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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