Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 151932 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 232 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Monday)...Nearly stationary frontal boundary that has been hanging around near our northern and western border will retreat back north during the short term period as a the upper ridge axis moves across the area. While plenty of low level moisture will linger, forcing looks limited at best so will keep southern areas dry tonight with low PoPs further north, and slight chance PoPs all areas Monday. May see a bit more sun Monday especially south and central, so plan to go above the already warm MAV temps most locations. Will stay close to MAV min temps. Will carry patchy fog all areas tonight. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)...Moist southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front will produce the chance for isolated showers Monday evening into Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, enough instability will be in place ahead of the frontal boundary for some scattered thunderstorms to develop, especially over western portions of the forecast area. While there are still some model differences with regards to exact timing and amount of moisture, it looks like the cold front itself will move through Tuesday night. By late Wednesday, we should be between systems. From here, model solutions digress and confidence lowers. Another low pressure system will approach the area late in the workweek. Models vary a bit with timing for this system, but consensus is greatest for rain on Friday and have upped PoPs for this timeframe accordingly. For the weekend, the unsettled pattern continues. With the low confidence in the detail, will generally keep low to chance pops, but will increase PoP late sunday as another better organized system approaches. Above normal temperatures will continue through the forecast period, allowing all precipitation to fall as rain.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 72 57 67 / 10 20 50 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 69 55 65 / 10 20 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 51 69 55 64 / 10 20 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 66 50 63 / 30 20 40 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/EMH

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