Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 272025 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 325 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...PESKY FLURRIES AND CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING ON IN NE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...AND NO POPS ARE NEEDED AFTER 00Z. MEANWHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL WILL BE VEERING TO A SE DIRECTION...AND THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SE BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT IT WILL HELP HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. BOTH A LOW AND MIDLEVEL BROKEN CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AND WILL LEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP FORECAST AREA DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THOUGH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN SOME MOUNTAIN VALLLEYS FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA NORTH TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF EXTREME NE TN AND SOUTHWEST VA. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL INITIALLY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY MORNING. THINKING ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE AND THAT WILL MELT BY LATE MORNING. THEN MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY THEN THROUGH THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MONDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THERE WILL BE ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AHEAD OF A STRONGER MORE SPRING LIKE SYSTEM. THE SECOND SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE MS AND TN VALLEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IF THE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL HAS NOT ALL MELTED BY THEN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AGAIN MUCH COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW THURSDAY FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGHER EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 27 45 34 50 / 0 10 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 22 41 33 50 / 0 10 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 22 42 34 50 / 0 10 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 18 39 30 50 / 10 10 0 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/TD

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