Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 161846 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 246 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET. LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS AND A LOWER CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS MAY MAY INHIBIT THICKER FOG AND MAY ALSO LIMIT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TERRIBLY LOW IF IT WAS OTHERWISE CLEAR. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN AND VA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY EXPECT FOG...WHERE IT DEVELOPS...TO CLEAR BY MID MORNING. IT SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR LATE SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST, AND WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THIS TIME...WILL HAVE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH THE SKY COVER AND TEMP ADVECTION...BUT STAYED WITH GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS. BY THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE DISAGREED TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE TIMING HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN SET UP WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 80 58 81 / 10 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 76 56 78 / 10 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 76 55 78 / 10 10 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 75 51 73 / 10 10 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AC/JW

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