Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 021855 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. WHILE THE DETAILS REMAIN HARD TO PIN DOWN...APPEARS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THE LOW SIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THE GROUND QUITE WET OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AND WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY RUNNING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY TRAINING OF CELLS OCCURS. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UNSETTLED LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES. MODELS AREN`T IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT DUE TO SEVERAL IMPULSES COMING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. EACH IMPULSE IS HARD TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON BECAUSE EACH ONE THAT PASSES THROUGH HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE ONE BEHIND IT. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO A NEW INCOMING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ENSUES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A MUCH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WHILE THE GFS WAVE IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE NAM SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TN AND TRACKING RIGHT OVER US. IF THIS IS THE CASE WE COULD BE DUE FOR SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN. THE GFS IS STILL WET BUT DRIER THAN THE NAM. THE GFS DOESN`T DEVELOP A CLOSED OFF LOW AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. AGAIN...BOTH MODELS ARE WET DURING THIS TIME-FRAME BUT THE NAM IS MUCH WETTER. THE ECMWF STILL LOOKS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM SO WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER WITH MORE PRECIP. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED PLACES HAVING SEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES SINCE AROUND JUNE 29TH. WPC CURRENTLY HAS OUR AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM 12 SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT WE COULD GET SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN. WILL STILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN ON BOTH DAYS AS MODELS SHOW MORE OF A DIURNAL SOLUTION. SO DRY IN THE MORNINGS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING. RIDGING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 81 69 80 / 80 80 60 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 78 67 79 / 80 80 60 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 77 68 79 / 80 80 60 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 77 65 78 / 80 80 60 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ LW/SR

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