Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 230216 AAB AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 1016 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .DISCUSSION...Strong upper storm system will continue move toward the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians late tonight and Monday. Strong upper level jet of 90+ kts will move north across the Tennessee/Ohio valleys placing the southern Appalachians under the favored right entrance region of the jet. Latest satellite and radar already showing convection expanding and strengthening over west Tennessee and northwest Alabama. Meso analysis shows pressure falls across much of Tennessee due to the synoptic lift with this system. The direct circulation around this jet will strengthen the fronto-genetic band that moves through Monday morning/early afternoon. The dynamic forcing is quite strong. Even though instability will be limited, enough forcing to produce widespread showers and chance of storms, south of interstate 40. The strength of the direct circulation around this jet will also produce a strong low-level jet with 850mb winds increasing to 60-65kts. Even though instability is lacking, concerned that some convection may produce strong gusty winds. Also, the strong boundary jet and favorable thermal profile for damaging mountain wave high winds over the higher terrain and adjacent foothills. Will maintain High Wind Warning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 70 48 63 / 90 100 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 69 48 61 / 60 90 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 61 69 47 61 / 70 100 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 71 46 62 / 30 90 70 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Wind Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for Johnson-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Unicoi. High Wind Warning until 1 PM EDT Monday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe. VA...None. && $$

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