Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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182 FXUS64 KMRX 061956 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 256 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY INTO TOMORROW)...
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CURRENTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS A TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF TODAY AND START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WILL ALLOW US TO ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF INTO THE 20`S TO LOWER 30`S OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AND HIGHS WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 50`S IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE REGION. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WILL BE A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE DEEPENING TROUGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ARCTIC REGIME SHOULD BEGIN AROUND LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM LIGHT RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW. THE AIR WILL BE SO COLD ALOFT THAT THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD PLAY A ROLE IN INITIATING SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. STILL TWO TO THREE DAYS OUT SO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION A LITTLE TOUGH TO PINPOINT BUT THROUGH THE LENGTHY PERIOD BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ENDING LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PERHAPS THREE TO FIVE INCHES (OR MORE) OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES WITH A DUSTING OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT VALLEY (EXCEPTION BEING NORTHEAST TENNESSEE WHERE TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENT). OF COURSE OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE FORECAST AREA GETS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT SO TO SPEAK THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WINTERY PRECIP WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE DRY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. AS STATED BEFORE...IT WILL BE A COLD WEEK WITH HIGHS A GOOD FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF A "WARMING" TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 31 56 35 44 / 0 0 30 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 52 34 42 / 0 0 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 30 54 34 43 / 0 0 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 25 49 30 41 / 0 0 40 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ ABM/TH

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