Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 230804 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 404 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday night)...
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An upper level trough over the mid-mississippi valley will move into the Tennessee Valley Today and Tonight. A series of jet streaks moving around the trough will enhance strong divergence aloft over the southern Appalachians. An inverted trough will also develop across the area today due the jet dynamics producing low level forcing as well with isentropic lift developing. Given continued very high PW climatology values over the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians, the developing showers will produce heavy rains. Training along the surface trough and elevated instability producing locally heavy rains, flash flooding will continue to be a concern over the already saturated ground. Have continued the flash flood watch through 00Z, except until 08Z over the southwest Virginia/northeast Tennessee and Smoky Mountains. Also concerned with the burn scar across Sevier County. The closed upper low will move slowly across the southeast United States through Monday with a chance of showers over the far eastern Counties. Due to plenty of clouds and showers, temperatures will remain on the cool side today. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Low pressure system will be spinning slowly through central Georgia by early Monday. We could continue to see some wrap around precipitation in Southwest Virginia and along the Southern Appalachian Mountains through Monday and into Monday evening, but for the majority of people in our forecast area the heavy precipitation from over the weekend will be over before the work week starts. As the low spins up the east coast we will get a decent ridge to quickly build in behind it, ahead of our next system. Daytime high temperatures will quickly warm up into the 80`s for most people by the middle of the week. At this time our next system will be knocking on our door, a frontal boundary moving in from the west. In the previous several runs of the forecast models there has been disagreement with how much strength and moisture this system will have as it moves through. Current model runs suggest that it maintains it`s strength and moves through Thursday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. After this system moves through we will quickly dry out and ridging will once again start to take place leading to another warm up in temperatures.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 53 72 55 / 90 70 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 52 69 54 / 100 70 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 52 70 54 / 100 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 49 67 51 / 100 90 50 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Cocke Smoky Mountains- Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-North Sevier- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan- Unicoi-Washington TN. Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe- Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-East Polk- Grainger-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-NW Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie- Southeast Monroe-Union-West Polk. VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Lee-Russell-Scott- Washington-Wise.
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