Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 190842 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 340 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
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A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME SUNSHINE IN STORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS TREND HAS BEEN DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS SOUTH MAINLY SOUTH TONIGHT AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE...WITH CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. PRECIP TYPE IS PROBLEMATIC...WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL LOOK LIKE. WILL LEAN TOWARD A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW RAIN OR SNOW FOR ALL BUT SOUTH WHERE WILL KEEP ALL RAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND MORE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM MAV TEMPS EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY...WHEN EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMP RISE SO WILL UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS RELATIVELY CLOSE IN DEPICTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURING A DEPARTING TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD BE A COUPLE SNOWFLAKES STILL AROUND IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING HERE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALLOWS FOR A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NEXT UPPER WAVE SLIDES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. DOESN`T APPEAR LIKE MUCH OF A PROBLEM HERE WTIH TEMPERATURES NOT DESCENDING INTO THE FREEZING ZONE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAD TO KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN GOING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MOISTENING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK IMPULSE RIPPING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MIDDLE AMERICA. THIS TROUGH REALLY AMPLIFIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE VIEWING AREA FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMS NORTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM LIKE THIS WARRANTS THE USE OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS. AS COLDER AIR AND A TRAILING SHORT WAVELENGTH FEATURE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE CIRCULATION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE IN THE WORKS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION COULD HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE CHRISTMAS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DRIER AIR AND POSSIBLY SUNSHINE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 36 50 36 / 0 70 30 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 34 48 34 / 0 50 40 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 33 47 34 / 0 50 40 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 30 45 30 / 0 30 50 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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