Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 231900 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
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CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...WITH A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH WAS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHWEST VA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS OCCURRING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED RESULTING IN JUST ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY. A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 71 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 69 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 69 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 37 66 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DMG/MJB

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