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000
FXUS64 KMRX 160823
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
423 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LITTLE CHANGE THIS MORNING FROM
24 HOURS AGO...EXCEPT FOR TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLIPPING OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOISTURE DEEPENS BY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER RIDGE ALSO FLATTENS. PREVIOUS WEATHER AND POP GRIDS LOOKED
GOOD WITH GENERALLY NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY...THEN
CHANCE POPS (OR SCATTERED WORDING) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE...SUCH AS SLIGHTLY LOWERING POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...WHICH COULD END.
PARTIAL CLEARING...IN ANY AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAINFALL...SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS OF FOG LATE.

FOR TEMPS...THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
DON`T FAVOR THE WARMER GFS MAX TEMPS...SO I TRENDED CLOSER TO THE
COOLER NAM/MET MOS MAXES. MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT WERE CLOSELY
FOLLOWED.

THE THREAT OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM SUNDAY WITH BROAD TROUGH SETTLING OVER EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND MUCH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT. FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO LOWER MET VALUES FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
MET/MOS BLEND FOR LOW ON TUE MORNING. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN FLOW
WILL SET OFF PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MAY BECOME
STRONG DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IF THERE IS ENOUGH
HEATING BUT NO CLEAR TRIGGER FOR SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING MAY BECOME HEAVY
BUT AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. FRONT MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN WASHES OUT BY FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  69  86  69  84 /  30  30  70  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  67  84  68  83 /  30  50  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  67  84  67  82 /  30  50  70  70  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  63  82  63  80 /  30  50  60  70  60
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/TD