Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 160823 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 423 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LITTLE CHANGE THIS MORNING FROM 24 HOURS AGO...EXCEPT FOR TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLIPPING OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE DEEPENS BY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO FLATTENS. PREVIOUS WEATHER AND POP GRIDS LOOKED GOOD WITH GENERALLY NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY...THEN CHANCE POPS (OR SCATTERED WORDING) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE...SUCH AS SLIGHTLY LOWERING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...WHICH COULD END. PARTIAL CLEARING...IN ANY AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAINFALL...SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS OF FOG LATE. FOR TEMPS...THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT DON`T FAVOR THE WARMER GFS MAX TEMPS...SO I TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM/MET MOS MAXES. MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT WERE CLOSELY FOLLOWED. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM SUNDAY WITH BROAD TROUGH SETTLING OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO LOWER MET VALUES FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MET/MOS BLEND FOR LOW ON TUE MORNING. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN FLOW WILL SET OFF PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MAY BECOME STRONG DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IF THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING BUT NO CLEAR TRIGGER FOR SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING MAY BECOME HEAVY BUT AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN WASHES OUT BY FRIDAY. EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 69 86 69 84 / 30 30 70 70 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 67 84 68 83 / 30 50 70 70 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 85 67 84 67 82 / 30 50 70 70 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 63 82 63 80 / 30 50 60 70 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/TD

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