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000
FXUS64 KMRX 161926
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODE CHANGE NOW UNDERWAY AS
WE TRANSITION BACK TO A WETTER PERIOD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND IT WILL BE FOLLOWED LATE
THIS EVENING BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  SO THERE ARE A COUPLE OF TIMES FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
LIFT IN THIS FIRST PERIOD.  FOR MONDAY...MOISTURE HANGS IN THE
AREA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO
HIGHER POPS THERE.  FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.  LOOKING
AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPE VALUES APPEAR LOW FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME...EVEN LOOKING LIKE PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES.  IN GRIDS WENT WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...THEN JUST SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE TIME THROUGH TUESDAY.  FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS...ALTHOUGH BUMPED UP KTRI A COUPLE OF DEGREES MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT FOR HIGHS...WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL SUPPRESS HEATING.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
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A GENERALLY ZONAL
PATTERN REMAINS IN VIEW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE REGIME. BEGINNING THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TX/AR AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL PUT US UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH LEAVES US VULNERABLE TO
MCS ACTIVITY TOPPING THE RIDGE FROM THE OH VALLEY. BUT THE MODELS
STRUGGLE TO IDENTIFY ANY CASE IN PARTICULAR...THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUGGESTS W TN ON FRI WHILE ECMWF SUGGESTS E TN LATER SATURDAY. THIS
PARTICULAR THREAT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR AWAY. THUS A
GENERALLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH POPS GENERALLY OF 20-30 PERCENT.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  85  69  79  65 /  30  70  70  70  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  83  69  79  64 /  50  60  60  80  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  84  68  80  64 /  50  60  60  70  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  83  64  81  60 /  50  50  50  80  40
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

GM/GC