Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 180650 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 250 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday night)... So far this morning, dewpoints have been holding in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area, making it unlikely that widespread frost will form before sunrise. Therefore, the SPS for frost will not be continued. Some cirrus is spreading across the area associated with an upper level shortwave trough, but it will have little impact on today`s weather, with sunny skies and high temps in the lower 70s. An increasingly amplified ridge will build over the Southeast through the rest of the period, providing a warming trend each day and clear skies. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday)... Amplification of the upper pattern keeps a nice, warm reminder of the great Summer season around this weekend with an increasing southerly flow between a protective Eastern U.S. upper trough and a slowly advancing Western states trough and cold front. A short wave feature shifts, in negative tilt fashion, northeast toward Hudson Bay in Canada Saturday into Sunday while the southern part of the trough slows in response to a developing closed low over the Southern Plains. Moistening in the southerly flow regime and convergence ahead of the slow moving cold front will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms mainly Sunday night into Monday. Another, more amplified upper trough and an associated reinforcing shot of colder air will drop southeast out of Central Canada later Monday into Tuesday bringing a continued chance of showers to the Southern Appalachians. After a mild weekend, high temperatures will drop back near normal for mid October in the middle and upper 60s.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 45 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 44 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 44 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 39 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ 24/99

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