Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 260300 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1100 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 High wind event is now underway tonight, with Cove Mountain reporting a 76 mph wind gust at 10 PM and Camp Creek NOAA reporting a peak wind gust of 66 mph also at 10 PM. Elsewhere valley locations are gusting in the 20s and 30s, and Rockwood Airport earlier reported a wind gust of 41 mph. Temperatures are running a few degrees warm tonight thanks to the wind, so smoothed the diurnal trend upwards a bit in response. Otherwise main forecast and impacts are well on track. Regional radar shows rain showers across Middle Tennessee, rain will move in later overnight as saturation of the lower atmosphere improves.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 1. Winds will further increase this afternoon and evening. A High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory are in effect. 2. Rain arrives late tonight into Tuesday morning with mountain wave wind gusts across the higher elevations and foothills of 80+ mph. 3. Along the line of rain showers, and a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms, winds will be strong ahead of the cold front. Discussion: An approaching upper level trough and associated cold front is expected to cross the area early Tuesday and into the afternoon. Impacts though, will increase as we head into tonight. MinRH`s are low in the teens and 20`s combined with wind gusts. An elevated fire risk is still in effect and will be until tonight. The pressure gradient across the mountains is expected to tighten tonight with 70 KT or so SSE 850 flow. Strongest winds expected overnight, with gusts near 80 mph possible over the higher terrain of the Appalachians and adjacent foothills. Similar flow will occur over the Cumberland Plateau, Southern Valley, and SW North Carolina, thus a Wind Advisory is in effect for wind gusts near 50 mph through Tuesday afternoon. Winds have already been gusting in some locations near 25 mph. The low-level flow and pressure gradient will weaken come Tuesday afternoon. Flow will turn more southwesterly following the passage of the front. A rain shadow is possible or lighter amounts on the western side of the Appalachians and other downslope prone areas. For example, by Wednesday night portions of NE Tennesee and southwest Virginia will hardly reach a half inch of rain, while portions of the southern valley and upslope areas of the Cumberland Plateau may see totals around an inch or more. A slight chance of thunderstorms is possible embedded within the line of showers. Overnight temperatures will end up much warmer tonight thanks in part to increasing cloud cover, strong winds, and eventual rain showers. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Key Messages: 1. Rain will remain east of I-75 into Wednesday morning, and light showers along the mountains into Thursday. 2. Temperatures drop into the 30s area wide Friday morning with frost/freezing conditions possible. Discussion: By Tuesday night the front should be near Middle TN or the eastern Tennessee Valley with rain showers present along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Rain will slowly come to an end for most of the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the front eventually moves east of the Appalachian Mountains. Light rain showers could linger across the southern Appalachian Mountains into Thursday as winds turn more northwesterly and some light moisture remains present in the atmosphere... But any precipitation is expected to come in the from of drizzle. We will see cooler temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday with the colder northwest air with highs about 5-10 degrees colder on Thursday vs Wednesday. Friday morning will be the coldest temperatures in the forecast with the cold northwest air and clear skies leading to effective radiational cooling. As the surface high moves over the region the winds will simultaneously really slack off and likely go calm overnight. This will lead to the possibility of frost conditions for much of the valley locations with temperatures dropping into the mid to lower 30`s. Temperatures will quickly rebound once the sun rises and plenty of sunshine will be present as we head into the weekend. A pleasant weekend looks to be in store with temperatures warming up into the 70s for Saturday and Sunday and the warm trend continues into Monday with near 80 degrees along the TN/GA border and 70s in the rest of the forecast area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 734 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Strong mountain wave wind event expected overnight, contributing to LLWS at TYS and TRI overnight ending around 14z. CHA expected to remain gusty, with winds increasing slightly overnight before slackening with the arrival of the rain. Light and moderate rainfall will move across East TN tomorrow between 14z to the end of the period, bringing VIS restrictions to MVFR during the rain. CIGs will gradually drop tonight, with CHA steadily deteriorating to IFR or near IFR status by the end of the period, TYS and TRI more resistant and may stay overcast just outside of restrictions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 66 50 69 / 70 100 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 65 50 67 / 50 90 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 51 64 49 69 / 50 100 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 60 49 68 / 20 90 60 30
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Tuesday for Bledsoe- Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Morgan-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-West Polk. High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wellington AVIATION...Wellington

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.