Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 020652 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... A DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER KY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT KEEPING PW VALUES UNDER 1 INCH. THE NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS APPEARS OVERDONE AS ITS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY STABLE AND DRY. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS IT SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR BORDER WITH THE NW STEERING FLOW...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP CHANCES MENTIONED TODAY. A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS. WILL STAY NEAR PERSISTENCE AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. .LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)... OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL START TO COME TO AN END AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE UNSETTLED ONE THIS WEEK. WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY WILL ZIP ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION, MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN AREA, TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL ALSO BE SOME OF THE WARMEST DAYS BEFORE COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUD COVERAGE MOVE IN. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF OUR AREA WHICH COULD HELP FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. IN ADDITION SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING IN MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT SHOULD HELP INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS AREA ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OCCURING, BUT DIFFER ON LOCATION OF HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND STRONGEST STORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 65 95 70 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 64 91 68 / 0 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 91 62 91 68 / 0 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 60 88 63 / 0 0 10 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/ABM

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