Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240701 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 301 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
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A persistence forecast will continue to be followed for the short term. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal today as the persistent high pressure ridge remains over the region through the period. With the dry soil conditions and rising low level thicknesses, temperatures will continue to trend upward, and will be close to record highs today at CHA (record of 94) and TYS (record of 93). TRI will be close but likely stay below its record of 92. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Only a few more days of well above normal temperatures as we continue to sit under a ridge of high pressure situated over the eastern half of the United States. Temperatures will once again flirt with 90 degrees on Sunday before we start a cool down. That cool down will come with a trough/low moving across northern U.S./Canada and a bringing a cold front with it. Ahead of the front moisture will begin to be drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico and we could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms, but the best chances for widespread precipitation will come with the actual frontal passage. Models are still in a bit of disagreement with the timing of the actual passage, but are slowly coming into agreement with each other. Right now it looks to occur Monday into Tuesday with some of the highest rain chances occurring Monday afternoon into Monday night. Rain chances will quickly come to an end after the front passes and we will return to dry conditions by Tuesday night. Some good news is that the ridge behind this frontal system looks to be weaker than the one currently over us, so high temperatures are not expected to be as high through the rest of the week. In fact, high temperatures through much of the work week are expected to remain right around normal for this time of year, generally hovering in the upper 70`s to lower 80`s.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 67 93 68 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 64 90 67 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 92 63 90 67 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 60 87 63 / 0 0 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS/ABM

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