Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 190711 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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FOR THIS MORNING...COOL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY WARM AREA LAKES/STREAMS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH PWS AROUND 1 INCH. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEEMS BEST CHANCE OVER THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST DUE TO A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE. FOR TONIGHT... CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE IN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SUNDAY. INSTABILITIES AND WIND PROFILE ARE WEAK WITH THIS FRONT...WITH LOW PW VALUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKING AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND WITH THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS...COULD SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS TO ADD MUCH DETAIL TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL DROP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A DEEP TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN US BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE ARE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 63 83 61 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 60 81 61 / 10 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 83 60 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 56 78 57 / 20 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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