Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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276 FXUS64 KMRX 051012 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 612 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .DISCUSSION...
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QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN FORECAST. UPDATE WAS BASED ON WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATE STEEPEN. ALSO...THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN LIGHTNING DETECTED WITH THE UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING DOWN INTO OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...CAN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEA SIZED HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. ALSO TWEAKED POP TIMING AND CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AS HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 47 73 50 / 30 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 46 69 49 / 60 50 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 46 70 49 / 60 30 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 43 63 46 / 80 70 40 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR

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