Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 270730 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 330 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
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A cool front will move across the region today bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area. Moderate levels of shear and instability could allow for the formation of strong to severe storms in a few spots today as cold air builds in aloft. The chance for rain will gradually end from west to east through the afternoon hours as the boundary slips closer to the Appalachian Spine. Highs will be limited to the middle and upper 70s today due to clouds and rain. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy tonight as drier air moves in behind the departing front. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...A summer-like pattern will be establishing itself as a large high pressure ridge off the SE coast will provide a very warm SW flow across the TN Valley region. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 80s for most of the area, with record highs in the upper 80s expected on Saturday. While surface dewpoints will be rising into the mid 60s on Saturday, a capping inversion will likely suppress most afternoon convection outside the mountains. Will have just a slight chance PoP Saturday in the higher elevations. Record highs for Saturday are 88 at TYS and CHA, and 86 for TRI. A strong low pressure system will track from the Missouri Valley region to the northern MS Valley on Sunday/Sunday night. This will bring a severe threat to our west that will be diminishing in intensity as storms track east and reach our area Sunday night. Dynamic forcing will be lifting NE into the OH Valley, and overnight timing will favor weak instability at best. A marginal wind threat appears possible with a LJJ of 50-60 kts. Cold frontal passage on Monday will bring temperatures back to near normal levels for Tuesday. However the pattern across the CONUS remains very progressive, and another approaching trough shown by the GFS and ECMWF will bring another chance of rain for Wednesday.
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&& .POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 54 85 66 / 90 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 53 85 65 / 90 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 76 52 85 65 / 80 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 51 85 59 / 60 20 10 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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