Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 290715 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 315 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES BRINGING ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES AT TIMES. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTRUBANCES COMES LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS ACCOMPANIED WITH UPPER JET STREAK DYNAMICS ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS MUCH BETTER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS THIS PERIOD. THE THIRD DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE FORM OF AN UPSTREAM MCS THAT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AGAIN. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER BUT SHEAR AND DYNAMICS MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BENEATH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD COULD BE CHARACTERIZED AS UNSETTLED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH HOLDING ITS POSITION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH NUMEROUS SHORTER WAVELENGTH FEATURES ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITHIN ITS COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW PATTERN. MODEL FORECASTS FOCUS THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY TWO HEALTHY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO THE REGION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH STARTS BUILDING BACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN CHECK THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HOLDING CLOSE TO EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 68 86 69 / 30 40 60 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 67 82 66 / 20 40 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 85 67 82 67 / 30 40 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 64 82 63 / 20 40 60 60
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ 24/99

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.