Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 282017 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 312 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LAYER RIDGING MOVES RAPIDLY SE THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER JET SEGMENT DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD MID MS VALLEY CARVING LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE MRX CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FAVORING ELEVATED NORTHERN AREAS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE SW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN A CHILLY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM /ALONG WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUN/ SHOULD HELP WARM HIGHS UP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE AS THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S... THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT AND BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CHANGE ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW...OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS ABOVE 2500-3000 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A BRIEF BOUT OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 54 34 46 / 10 30 20 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 29 51 32 39 / 10 30 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 29 49 32 41 / 10 30 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 23 50 30 36 / 10 50 60 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/AMP

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