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000
FXUS64 KMRX 161755
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
155 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION...
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CONVECTION NOW BUILDING OVER THE PLATEAU...THINK IT WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND RELATIVELY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...THEN
MOVE OUT INTO THE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE HIGHER AT KCHA FOR GETTING HIT
BY THUNDER...SO WENT WITH TEMPO FOR -TSRA THERE FOR A 3 HOUR
PERIOD IN FRONT OF FORECAST. FOR OTHER TWO SITES WENT WITH VCTS.
TIMING IS A REAL ISSUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DISTURBANCE
PRESENTLY HEADING TOWARD AREA WILL BE PASSING BY EARLY
EVENING...THEN ANOTHER WEAK ONE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE SO LIGHT AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED THAT I
OPTED NOT TO GO WITH A TEMPO FOR KTYS AND KTRI OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON
NORTHERN END OF ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION...SO WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
-RA THERE AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT BROUGHT CIGS OR VSBYS
DOWN VERY FAR DUE TO LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP.
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

GM