Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 152326 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 726 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Key Messages: 1. Another round of weaker and more isolated storms possible this afternoon/evening along the frontal boundary. 2. Clearer skies and dry weather for Saturday. Discussion: Currently mostly dry conditions across the region as the main line of storms is well to the south/east of the Appalachian Mountains. However additional isolated showers are developing right along the frontal boundary that is pushing through Central KY and Middle TN early this afternoon. Expect these storms to continue into the eastern Tennessee Valley this afternoon/evening, but coverage and intensity will be significantly lower than what we experienced this morning. Once the front passes through all precipitation chances will be taken away with it leading to a cooler temperatures overnight with lows expected to be around 10 degrees colder than this morning. With all the rainfall we experienced we could see some patchy dense fog overnight, but mostly cloudy skies are expected to linger until around after sunrise on Saturday, which will likely inhibit widespread dense fog. On Saturday mostly sunny skies are expected, which will help bring temperatures close to Friday`s highs, and about 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals.&& .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Key Messages: 1. Cooler weather arrives early next week. Widespread frost/freeze expected. 2. High pressure and drier air early to mid week with rain chances increasing by Friday. Discussion: Strong shortwave across the Great Lakes will amplify the longwave trough across the Ohio Valley and Central/Southern Appalachians on Sunday into Sunday night as a surface cold front pushes southeast across the region. As high pressure builds in across the area on Monday and Tuesday, drier air and much below normal temperatures are expected across the entire area. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are expected on Monday morning and Tuesday morning -- especially on Monday night into Tuesday morning when low temperatures will be in the 20s area-wide. This will present a hazard to early spring agriculture across the forecast area. By mid-week, shortwave ridging begins to return with a warming temperature trend through late week. The track and timing are still uncertain, but an area of low pressure near the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley will track northeastward late week bringing rain chances to the region by Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Key Messages: 1. Cooler weather arrives early next week. Widespread frost/freeze expected. 2. High pressure and drier air early to mid week with rain chances increasing by Friday. Discussion: Strong shortwave across the Great Lakes will amplify the longwave trough across the Ohio Valley and Central/Southern Appalachians on Sunday into Sunday night as a surface cold front pushes southeast across the region. As high pressure builds in across the area on Monday and Tuesday, drier air and much below normal temperatures are expected across the entire area. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are expected on Monday morning and Tuesday morning -- especially on Monday night into Tuesday morning when low temperatures will be in the 20s area-wide. This will present a hazard to early spring agriculture across the forecast area. By mid-week, shortwave ridging begins to return with a warming temperature trend through late week. The track and timing are still uncertain, but an area of low pressure near the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley will track northeastward late week bringing rain chances to the region by Friday. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 A few showers around early, with the best chance at TRI where will include a tempo group, then overall trend to MVFR cigs all sites for much of tonight into early Saturday before clouds scatter out and all sites finish the period VFR. Winds will mostly be from the west/northwest/north at less than 10 kts.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 71 50 65 / 40 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 67 47 63 / 40 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 48 69 46 64 / 30 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 64 43 61 / 40 10 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....JB AVIATION...

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