Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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000
FXUS64 KMRX 152326
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
726 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Key Messages:
1. Another round of weaker and more isolated storms possible this
afternoon/evening along the frontal boundary.
2. Clearer skies and dry weather for Saturday.
Discussion:
Currently mostly dry conditions across the region as the main line
of storms is well to the south/east of the Appalachian Mountains.
However additional isolated showers are developing right along the
frontal boundary that is pushing through Central KY and Middle TN
early this afternoon. Expect these storms to continue into the
eastern Tennessee Valley this afternoon/evening, but coverage and
intensity will be significantly lower than what we experienced this
morning. Once the front passes through all precipitation chances
will be taken away with it leading to a cooler temperatures
overnight with lows expected to be around 10 degrees colder than
this morning. With all the rainfall we experienced we could see some
patchy dense fog overnight, but mostly cloudy skies are expected to
linger until around after sunrise on Saturday, which will likely
inhibit widespread dense fog. On Saturday mostly sunny skies are
expected, which will help bring temperatures close to Friday`s
highs, and about 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals.&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Key Messages:
1. Cooler weather arrives early next week. Widespread frost/freeze
expected.
2. High pressure and drier air early to mid week with rain chances
increasing by Friday.
Discussion:
Strong shortwave across the Great Lakes will amplify the longwave
trough across the Ohio Valley and Central/Southern Appalachians on
Sunday into Sunday night as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across the region. As high pressure builds in across the area on
Monday and Tuesday, drier air and much below normal temperatures
are expected across the entire area. Widespread frost and freeze
conditions are expected on Monday morning and Tuesday morning --
especially on Monday night into Tuesday morning when low
temperatures will be in the 20s area-wide. This will present a
hazard to early spring agriculture across the forecast area.
By mid-week, shortwave ridging begins to return with a warming
temperature trend through late week. The track and timing are
still uncertain, but an area of low pressure near the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley will track northeastward late
week bringing rain chances to the region by Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Key Messages:
1. Cooler weather arrives early next week. Widespread frost/freeze
expected.
2. High pressure and drier air early to mid week with rain chances
increasing by Friday.
Discussion:
Strong shortwave across the Great Lakes will amplify the longwave
trough across the Ohio Valley and Central/Southern Appalachians on
Sunday into Sunday night as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across the region. As high pressure builds in across the area on
Monday and Tuesday, drier air and much below normal temperatures
are expected across the entire area. Widespread frost and freeze
conditions are expected on Monday morning and Tuesday morning --
especially on Monday night into Tuesday morning when low
temperatures will be in the 20s area-wide. This will present a
hazard to early spring agriculture across the forecast area.
By mid-week, shortwave ridging begins to return with a warming
temperature trend through late week. The track and timing are
still uncertain, but an area of low pressure near the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley will track northeastward late
week bringing rain chances to the region by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
A few showers around early, with the best chance at TRI where will
include a tempo group, then overall trend to MVFR cigs all sites
for much of tonight into early Saturday before clouds scatter out
and all sites finish the period VFR. Winds will mostly be from the
west/northwest/north at less than 10 kts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 71 50 65 / 40 0 0 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 67 47 63 / 40 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 48 69 46 64 / 30 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 64 43 61 / 40 10 0 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...