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435
FXUS64 KMRX 090524
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
124 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 1135 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Updated forecast package with new Tornado Watch #214 issued for
southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina to go until 4 AM
EDT with plateau and central valley counties in Tornado Watch #211
expiring at midnight EDT. Several supercell storms that moved into
the plateau counties and southeast Tennessee a few hours ago have
formed into a line and have produced heavy rainfall across the
eastern part of the region. Expect high coverage of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the night with a risk for more
severe storms in the southern third and heavy rainfall elsewhere.
Later tonight HRR model shows a fast moving line of storms to move
from the plateau to North Carolina by around 900 AM. This may pose
a high wind threat and also more flooding with the heavy rain this
evening.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Key Message:

1. Risk of severe weather remains through this evening and into the
overnight hours. All hazards remain possible, large hail, heavy
rain, flooding, damaging winds, tornados.

2. The highest risk areas from now through this evening will
generally be along I-40, from Knoxville and westward, including
the northern Cumberland Plateau. Then, the severe threat shifts
further south, south of I-40, later this evening into tonight.

Discussion.

Scattered showers and a few storms are currently ongoing across
the forecast area. This mornings round of showers and storms have
significantly stabilized the atmosphere, generally from Morristown
and all points northeastward into northeast TN and southwest VA.
These areas are still in a slight risk for severe weather but no
longer under an enhanced risk. These are the areas that we feel
will be the least favorable to see additional severe weather
through the rest of the event. Having said that, do not let your
guard down but just keep in mind the threat probabilities are now
lower. With skies just now beginning to clear, if instability can
recover across these areas then the threat levels will rise.

From now through late evening, the area of greatest concern will
be along the I-40 corridor from Knoxville and points westward, as
well as across the northern Cumberland Plateau. There is
currently a tight instability gradient across middle TN and east
along I-40 into the east TN Valley. Latest HRRR shows additional
convection developing over the next few hours across middle TN and
then progressing east along the instability gradient. All hazards
will be possible with this next round of convection. The biggest
question is how far north will the threat area be. Current sat
imagery shows skies clearing across northern Cumberland Plateau.
HRRR shows this area having modest instability recovery through
this evening. The general timeframe for this next round appears
to be between 22Z and 03Z. HRRR also continues to show a few
strong helicity tracks across this area, which is more reason for
concern. Thereafter, a line of convection moves in south of I-40
corridor between 02 and 03Z and progresses east across the
southern east TN valley and into southwest NC through 06Z. All
hazards remain possible with this line of convection as well.

The final round of convection looks like it will push
through the area between 06Z and 12Z. The severe threat during
this last round is much more uncertain due to limited instability.
The biggest threat area, if any, should be limited to the
southern TN Valley as this area has the best chance to have some
remaining instabilty according the HRRR. All hazards remain
possible with this final line of convection but much more
uncertainty exists.

One area we have not thoroughly discussed is the flooding. Thus
far, we have seen several areas receive between 1 and 2" of
precip with isolated pockets of 2 to 3". With the next few rounds
of convection, we are expecting an additional 1 to 2" with
isolated amounts of 2 to 3". These additional rainfall amounts
will become increasing problematic across areas that have already
seen the higher rainfall totals. 6 hour FFG is generally 1 to 2
inches across the areas that have received the higher totals.
There are a few isolated areas with FFG as low as low as 0.5" in 6
hours.

Showers and storms should generally exit the forecast area
tomorrow morning between 12 and 15z. A few showers and isolated
storms may linger through mid afternoon across southwest NC. Dry
conditions are forecast areawide by late afternoon with sunshine
returning to most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Key Message:

1. Cooler weather late week and into the weekend behind the cold
front.

2. Lingering showers possible Friday with shortwaves within the
northwest upper flow. Quick shortwave may bring some showers and
thunderstorms Saturday (highest chance northern areas).

3. Drier weather expected Sunday and Monday with a gradual warming
trend. Chance of showers increases again mid-week.

Discussion.

Behind the cold front on Thursday, cooler and drier air will arrive
across the region within the northwest upper flow. Troughing and
cooler air aloft will result in some diurnal convection on Friday
afternoon with limited potential for thunder.

A stronger shortwave is expected to move through the upper level
northwest flow on Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible on Saturday afternoon, with the highest chance for
precipitation across our northern counties through southwest
Virginia.

Ridging begins to build on Sunday and Monday with drier weather and
a gradual warming trend into early next week. Chance of rain begin
to return on Tuesday and Wednesday as a system is expected to
develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but certainty in timing

&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions at all sites now but anticipate lower ceilings and
visibilities late tonight and early Thursday morning with showers
and thunderstorms continuing to move from west to east across
east TN. Any thunderstorms passing over a terminal could produce
gusty and erratic winds that differ from a more south to southwest
wind. Will have improving conditions by early afternoon Thursday
from north to south as rain moves out. Gusty southwest winds will
begin after the cold front moves through in the afternoon.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  76  52  76 /  30  20   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  70  48  71 /  30  30   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  71  48  72 /  20  30   0  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  67  45  66 /  30  40  10  40
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for Anderson-
     Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
     Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-
     Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
     Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
     Washington VA-Wise.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TD
AVIATION...TD