Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 250831 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 330 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN PULL AWAY ON MONDAY. MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW. EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN MOVING IN LATE TODAY...WITH BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. PRECIP TYPE STILL PROBLEMATIC...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY TOO WARM FOR MUCH SNOW IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD PICK UP SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND MAY END UP BEING ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY LEVEL ON AMOUNTS...WILL JUST ISSUE AN SPS TALKING ABOUT THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NOW. WILL UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS A BIT MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...STAYED THE COURSE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS KEEPING SLIGHT THROUGH LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE VALLEY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL SCENARIO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHERE THE MOUNTAINS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE PEAKS ACROSS THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND MORRISTOWN NORTHEAST INTO THE TRI-CITIES AREA...PERHAPS A SMIDGE MORE ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE WINTER WITH THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH IN NO HURRY TO MOVE AWAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION SHOULD END BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. IN THE ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH RAIN ON THE FRONT SIDE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE AS MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAILING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LATER WEEK FEATURE JUST ADDS MORE COLD AIR TO THE MIX KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH A BIT OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE BACK IN THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 38 42 29 / 40 70 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 38 42 29 / 30 80 50 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 37 41 29 / 40 80 50 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 35 40 26 / 10 80 60 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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