Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 040828 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 304 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
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A COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND 850MB JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS...WARM AND MOIST AIR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AREA TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AIR ALOFT WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE ASSOCIATED RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND WHEN WILL THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO SNOW OCCUR. ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN EARLY IN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW WITH THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW EXITING THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLE OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MAYBE LEE AND WISE COUNTIES IN VA THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW. THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING. THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR NOW. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE PRECIP FREE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LINGERS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS WELL. MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS SOMETIME DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY AND CARRY LOW POPS ON TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 37 38 22 / 80 90 100 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 35 36 18 / 80 90 100 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 61 33 34 18 / 80 90 100 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 33 33 17 / 80 90 100 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK- HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS- NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE- SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION- WASHINGTON TN. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE- HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL- CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN. VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT- WASHINGTON-WISE. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.
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&& $$ MJB/LW

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