Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 210706 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...Eclipse day across the area. Upper and surface ridging will limit convection as well as cloud cover today. Only chance of convection will be near the North Carolina state-line where upslope flow may produce isolated showers/storms. Due to the high number of people outside viewing the eclipse and the many venues, heat exhaustion and sunburn will be a concern. Plan on issuing a statement discussing these concerns. Due to the eclipse, have reduced forecast max by a degree or two. Also, have reduced the hourly temperatures at 3 pm by 3 to 5 degrees. The greatest temperature reduction due to the eclipse should be observed between 235 and 245 pm. Places in full obstruction could see a temperature drop of 6 to 8 degrees. Otherwise, patchy fog development early this morning and Tuesday morning. Some of the fog may be locally dense, especially near area lakes and streams. .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Forecast remains largely unchanged from previous with good agreement in the breakdown of the ridge on Tuesday being replaced by troughing midweek. Cold front drops south Tuesday night forcing convection and likely PoPs late Tuesday night and Wednesday. PWs ahead of the front jump up to around 2.0 inches which is near the 90th percentile for this time of year, so may have some moderate to heavy rain on Wednesday. However, widespread flooding issues are not anticipated with the quick moving front and general synoptic setup. Instability and shear also look marginal during this event, so really do not anticipate much of a severe weather threat beyond general thunderstorm hazards. The front should move to our southeast Wednesday night and Thursday bringing in a drier airmass and keeping potential tropical disturbances off of the East Coast. Dry PWs of 0.7-1.0 inch look possible late Thursday through Friday which would be around the 10th percentile for this time of year. Should have a mostly dry Thursday and a dry Friday with temperatures expected to be below normal Wednesday through Friday. The next trough may bring some additional chance/slight chance PoPs late next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 93 74 / 10 10 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 90 72 / 10 0 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 90 72 90 73 / 10 0 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 66 88 69 / 10 10 20 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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