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000
FXUS64 KMRX 150645
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BEAUTIFUL
WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER
/REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY/. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND TRIGGER SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT /PROMOTING
MILDER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S/.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS
SE STATES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...APPEARS THAT THE BETTER FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THUS...DID NOT ADJUST RAIN
CHANCES MUCH UNTIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO SE KY TO THE CAROLINAS. WAS TEMPTED TO GO LIKELY
FOR POPS BY THE WEEKEND...NOTING THE INCREASING GFSX MOS POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...NUDGED POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE WITH SCATTERED WORDING FOR
NOW...WITH THE OPTION FOR DAY SHIFT TO PUSH POPS UP TO LOW END OF
LIKELY IF MODELS ARE CONSISTENT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY...
LEAVING GENERALLY DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CHANCE POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR THOSE PERIODS AND LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
SO BEST TO STICK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS.

TEMPS STAY ON THE MILD TO WARM SIDE WITH LITTLE TARGETS OF
OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE ON GFSX MOS...SO PREVIOUS MAX/MIN TEMP GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED VERY CLOSE TO THE 15/00Z GFSX MOS TEMPS.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  59  83  59  83 /   0  10  20  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  59  82  60  83 /   0  10  20  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  58  83  59  82 /   0  10  20  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  53  80  54  82 /  10  10  30  20  20
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

AMP/TG