Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 172048 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 348 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
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LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. MEANWHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NM/TX. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB VORT MAX AND DIVERGENCE IN THE JET EXIT REGION PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA. AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CUT OFF AS THE 850 MB FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY. THUS WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND TOMORROW AS PRECIP FALLS THROUGH A VERY DRY LAYER. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE PLATEAU COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. IT COULD BEGIN AS A LITTLE SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WE ARE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA...OVERALL QUIET. AT THAT TIME TO THE WEST...OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. LOOKS LIKE ITS EFFECTS WILL START IN OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING FAIRLY WEAK NOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. THEN AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY OR LOW POP DAYS...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MAY SPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIP INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY STRONG...BUT THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE NORTH OF HERE...BUT STILL A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTERY PRECIP THEN. FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND...FREEZING LEVEL IS QUITE HIGH...SO ONLY HAVE A MENTION OF MIXES WITH SNOW OR SLEET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS OVERALL.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 33 49 33 49 / 0 20 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 46 31 48 / 10 20 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 31 45 31 46 / 10 20 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 42 30 44 / 0 20 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/GM

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