Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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718 FXUS64 KMRX 251934 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 334 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Tomorrow)...There may be an isolated shower or storm ongoing to start the period as a weak frontal boundary remains near our southern border. This activity will fade around sunset as we lose our daytime heating. Calm and clear skies overnight will lead to some patchy fog, especially across Northeast TN and Southwest VA where lows will be in the low to mid 60s. Another hot one tomorrow as high pressure remains in control. Front is further south tomorrow but there still could be an isolated shower or storm develop during afternoon peak-heating, most areas stay dry. Highs will be in the lower 90s across the Central and Southern Valley and near 90 elsewhere. Heat index values will be in the mid to upper 90s across the Central and Southern Valley. Drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks if outdoors. .LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Tuesday)...Hot and humid conditions continue Wednesday night with only isolated evening showers and storms and warm temperatures upper 60s north to mid 70s around Chattanooga. Then Thursday models show increasing showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front that approaches late Thursday into early Friday. Possible strong storms Thursday evening into the overnight hours if NAM model is correct. It shows stronger 850 MB SW winds ahead of this system over northeast section of the Forecast area. GFS model much slower and showing more concentrated storms possible Friday. Thursday high temperatures still above 90 around Chattanooga but expect highs to be mainly mid to upper 80s elsewhere as clouds increase ahead of the front. The front will move slowly through the area Friday with likely chances and cooler temperatures mostly upper 70s to mid 80s. For the period Friday night through Tuesday rain chances decrease as higher pressure builds back in and front sinking south. Also drier air mass with upper trough settling over eastern part of the country will keep lows mostly in the cooler low to mid 60s and highs in the 80s. The weekend will be mostly dry and then increasing moisture Monday and Tuesday will bring slight chances back into the forecast mainly afternoons and evenings.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 94 74 91 / 20 10 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 92 72 88 / 0 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 70 92 72 89 / 0 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 89 67 87 / 0 10 10 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ SR/TD

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