Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 060809 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 409 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTERLY DRIFT TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO TN FROM THE WEST. MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL TODAY OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP THAN THE NAM TODAY...BUT THEIR PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER A TENTH ARE LIKELY TOO MUCH GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE N-NW FLOW. WILL HAVE POPS TODAY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KNOXVILLE...AND GO CLOSER TO THE NAM FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. A DEEP MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET SHOULD END ANY REMAINING SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HELPED BRING THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE SPINNING ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM PRETTY QUICKLY IN RESPONSE. THEN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO NEARLY CONTINUOUS RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. HELPING KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND WILL BE A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE JUST NORTH OF THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY LEADING TO NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING MOST OF THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD NEXT WEEK. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHEN/WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR OUT AS CONVECTION FROM ONE DAY WILL LIKELY AFFECT CONVECTION THE NEXT DAY. SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY COME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WINDS MOSTLY COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 48 81 59 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 48 79 58 / 10 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 48 78 58 / 10 0 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 44 73 55 / 30 10 20 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/ABM

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