Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 230901 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 401 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE SE 850 JET...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PLUS A STABLE LAYER SUPPORT UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN VALLEY WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ONSET OF MEASURABLE RAINS FOR THOSE AREAS...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS LACKING...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING...WAS WORTH ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SE TN AND SW NC COUNTIES. THE SE FLOW SHIFTS TO SW BY 03Z MONDAY AND THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS MAY BE DECREASING BY THEN. HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...COULD REQUIRE AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY FOR 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. THUS...OPTED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 12Z MONDAY FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE CHALLENGING...GIVEN ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 34 DEGS AT TRI TO 56 DEGS AT CHA. DOWNSLOPING EFFECT SHOULD ADD A FEW DEGREES FOR CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEY AREAS. THE GFS MOS MAX TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSLOPE WARMING. MINS TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE MILD GIVEN THE STRONG SW WINDS AND NO FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS BRING IN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS STILL STRONG OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY OR DOWNGRADE HIGH WIND WARNING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH NAM MODEL WETTER AND WARMER THAN GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AS WELL IN THE 60S. INITIAL FRONT TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW IN THE EVENING. COLD AND DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT ENDING PRECIPITATION AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT ARE DRY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DOWN INTO THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE VALLEY. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...PROBABLY LESS THAN ONE INCH. COLD UPPER TROUGH IS REINFORCED AS PRECIPITATION SHIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IN NW FLOW CROSSES NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORE COOL AND DRY WEATHER AS UPPER TROUGH STAYS OVER EASTERN US.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 53 62 35 / 90 50 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 51 64 33 / 90 60 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 59 51 62 33 / 90 50 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 48 65 32 / 90 70 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK- JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.
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&& $$ TG/TD

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