Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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912 FXUS64 KMRX 021845 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 245 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY INTO TOMORROW)... ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME SUNSHINE WAS ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE CLOUDS TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR GOOD DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE SEEING MODERATE CAPE OF GENERALLY OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH MODERATE SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE THAT MOVE OVER AND ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL BELIEVE THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, HAIL, AND STRONG WINDS. WITH THE STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WE COULD SEE TRAINING STORMS LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. HOPEFULLY WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST MONTH THE RIVERS AND LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE QUICK HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. THE STRONGEST OF THE STORMS WILL COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT... AND WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED WE COULD SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW DIGGING IN BEHIND IT. WILL HAVE COLDER AIR MOVING IN AS WELL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. WILL SEE SHOWERS AT TIMES...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS MAIN TROUGH DIGS IN AND AHEAD OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS MAY GET LOW ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT OVER THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THERE WILL BE MUCH MOISTURE AT TEMPS FAVORING ICE CRYSTALLIZATION. UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN STARTING FRIDAY...AND WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 76 50 71 / 80 20 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 73 49 68 / 80 40 20 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 59 74 50 68 / 80 30 20 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 72 47 65 / 90 60 40 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ ABM/LW

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