Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 201859 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
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NOT TOO EVENTFUL. FROPA WILL OCCUR AND THEN WE WILL BEGIN TO FIND OUR NE SECTIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. LOW POPS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH FROPA...THEN THE CHANCE-OF-PRECIP AREA WILL GRADUALLY BE CONFINED TO SW VA AND FAR NE TN TUESDAY. POST-FRONTAL MIXING WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS TUESDAY A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER TUESDAY THAN TODAY. A BETTER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...SEE BELOW. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL AND SHOW A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER OUR AREA. SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT DOES NOT LOOK DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS NORTHEAST THAN SOUTHWEST EARLY. MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED SO NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF TO OUR EAST LATE. SHOULD BE DRY AND A BIT WARMER. WILL GENERALLY NOT STRAY FAR FROM GFS MOS TEMPS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 70 44 67 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 66 41 61 / 10 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 65 41 63 / 20 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 61 41 56 / 30 20 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ GC/LW

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