Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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958 FXUS64 KMRX 080922 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 422 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AREAS ALONG THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS /WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AND LIFT GREATER/...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING /THOUGH EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE VERY TERRAIN DEPENDENT/. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SPECFICS OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE WSW PRODUCT. PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS AN INTERESTING ONE TODAY AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE REST OF THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ACTUALLY GIVE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...ALONG WITH THE RAIN. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING COLDER AIR IN IT`S WAKE AND SOME GREATER QPF AMOUNTS...RESULTING IN SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO THE SUBFREEZING AIR THERE. BY THIS EVENING...THE COLD AIR WILL CHANGE RAIN TO ALL SNOW QUICKLY IN THE VALLEY...RESULTING IN ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BY DAYBREAK. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF AND SNOWFALL WILL FOCUS ITSELF...AND RESULT IN TOTALS RANGING IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE BY DAYBREAK. THE TIME PERIOD FOR HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE 18-06Z. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL REMAIN THE DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING OUT MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. LONG DURATION OF EVENT WILL FAVOR A WARNING FOR THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AN ADVISORY ELSEWHERE... EXCEPT SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH KNOB...VA...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER 48-60 HOURS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AND 10 INCHES. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC COLD WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT-WAVE MOVE ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 45 27 32 21 / 60 40 50 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 25 31 20 / 60 70 70 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 25 31 20 / 70 70 70 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 25 29 20 / 80 80 70 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS- JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE- GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-NW BLOUNT- NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE- SEQUATCHIE-UNION. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR BRADLEY-HAMILTON-MCMINN-MEIGS-WEST POLK. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN- WASHINGTON TN. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
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