Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 010714 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 314 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR WEST TODAY FROM E TX NE TO CENTRAL INDIANA. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE RISING SLIGHTLY TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO TN-NC LINE AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA. PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS DEPICTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST IN THOSE AREAS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED. OPTED TO ALSO STAY DRY FOR THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BUT SE TN. WARMER TEMPS FOR BOTH MAXES AND MINS CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS VALUES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO VIRGINIA/ CAROLINA. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MAIN FORCING WILL BE OROGRAPHIC WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER/NEAR TERRAIN FEATURES. THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND SOUTH WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERALL...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 69 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 68 89 69 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 89 67 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 63 88 65 / 10 10 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/DH

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