Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 241523 AAB AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 1123 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .DISCUSSION...
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An active day across the region as a surface cold front tracks toward the region from the west. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the region along and ahead of this boundary. The first wave of energy will continue to track across East Tennessee into Southwest Virginia over the next 2-3 hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible with this wave -- especially for areas along the NC/GA border where a Tornado Watch is in effect and with some of the stronger line segments. The second wave will move across the region from midday through the rush hour/late afternoon time period. Should we begin to see some clearing/breaks develop back toward the west, another round of strong, more organized storms are possible. This is due to a strengthening 30-40 kt LLJ, which will create a more favorable shear profile for organized line segments and perhaps a few supercells. The big question as mentioned is instability and how storms this morning will impact the environment late this afternoon. Earlier runs of the NAM and HRRR supported some stronger storms in the afternoon. Latest trends are weaker given some lower progged instability values behind this initial wave. However, as mentioned, the favorable shear profile will make it necessary for watching everything closely as all three modes of severe weather are possible: damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Main threat will last until 5 PM EDT until this activity generally shifts east of the mountains as the front sweeps in.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 55 75 56 / 90 50 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 54 70 54 / 90 40 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 72 54 71 55 / 90 40 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 53 64 52 / 90 60 70 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ AMP

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