Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 301846 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 246 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
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THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...CAPES 2000 TO 3000J/KG AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING WITH PWS RANGING FROM 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE AS WE APPROACH SUNSET AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE CHANCE OF STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE MINIMAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN STILL ADVERTISED...WITH THE BEST BET FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.60 TO 2.00 INCHES). LIGHTER RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL SOLID LIKELY POPS NEEDED...DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND GRIDS. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES BELOW LIKELY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING RETURNING. PLEASANT HIGH TEMPS FOR EARLY JULY MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. STAYED CLOSE TO GFS MOS EARLY THEN IN LINE WITH THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS IN GENERAL. GEARING UP TO HANDLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 86 70 82 / 40 60 70 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 83 67 80 / 50 60 70 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 83 67 79 / 50 60 70 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 80 64 78 / 60 60 60 80
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/TG

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