Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 270717 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 315 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE WAVE WHICH BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. BY AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE VIEWING AREA. ACTUALLY TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THE EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FEATURE THAT MODELS BRING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE FIRST PERIOD AND MAINLY SECOND PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. STAYED CLOSE TO MAX/MIN GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A MOIST S-SW FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO WILL FAVOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BOTH DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH BRINGS A FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE POSITION OF THE FRONT ACROSS WV/KY ON SUNDAY MAY ENHANCE PRECIP COVERAGE INTO THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WILL HIGHLIGHT SUNDAY AS THE DAY FOR THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES...WITH LIKELY POPS NORTH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT BACK TO THE NORTH. GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE QPF SPREAD AS WELL. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 65 86 67 / 40 30 50 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 65 84 66 / 20 30 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 85 66 84 65 / 20 30 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 61 82 62 / 20 20 30 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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