Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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033 FXUS64 KMRX 231900 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SHORT TERM (Tonight and Wednesday)...
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Surface high pressure shifting east of the area this evening...and will allow a weak boundary to push in late tonight into Wednesday. With a relatively dry air mass in place tonight...expect the main effect will be an increase in cloud cover. On Wednesday...southerly flow will bring low level moisture back into the area and as the boundary continue over the region...isolated convection may develop...generally over higher elevations. As for temperatures...we will continue with a slow warming trend with Wednesday afternoon highs reaching into the mid 80s to low 90s. .LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...High pressure ridge aloft dominates the forecast through the weekend as any middle to upper level support for convection traverses the Great Lakes region, well north of our area. On Friday, weak trailing edge of a cold front tries to push into the area as it dissipates. By Saturday, the combination of a weak shortwave moving around the ridge coupled with the remnant frontal boundary may help to slightly increase POPs across the area in the afternoon. However confidence remains low in anything more than isolated to widely scattered diurnal activity even then. Otherwise, with ridge aloft playing the dominant role, we can expect to see daytime highs once again climb about 3-5 degrees F above normal through the weekend as August heat returns. Early next week, we will need to keep an eye on area of convective activity currently in the Tropical Atlantic, just east of the Windward Islands. Guidance suggests that this wave will move generally NW over the next several days and may begin to influence our weather on Tuesday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 91 72 92 / 10 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 89 70 90 / 10 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 89 70 91 / 10 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 86 65 88 / 10 20 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ MJB/EJH

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