Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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148 FXUS64 KMRX 020758 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 258 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... With high pressure centered over MS/AL today, a dry NW flow through the low levels will continue. Models generally show neutral advection at 850 mb today, which should result in high temps near or slightly warmer than yesterday and close to seasonal normals, in the upper 40s to mid 50s. High clouds may begin to increase tonight ahead of the next system that will be taking shape in the Rockies and desert Southwest. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Dry weather continues through the daytime on Saturday before we switch to a more unsettled pattern with frequent chances for precipitation. A low pressure system will move southeast along the Western portion of the United Sates and towards Central Mexico. Ahead of this system low level winds will start to switch out of the south and bring in a good amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. With this increase in moisture precipitation will spread from Texas and makes its way northeast towards our part of the country. Precipitation will spread out across the area starting Saturday evening/night and will likely remain over the area until the low pressure kicks through sometime in the middle of the work week. During this extended period of precipitation chances we could see overnight temperatures dip close enough to freezing that some of the higher elevations and places in Southwest Virginia could see a few flurries overnight Saturday night and Sunday night. However, temperatures should barely reach freezing and only remain there briefly, so accumulations should be minimal to non existent. We get a brief lull in precipitation chances Wednesday before a front pushes through and brings another round of showers to the area. Models are in disagreement with how strong the trough associated with the cold front will be and how much precipitation it will bring. Temperatures should drop by a decent amount behind this front and current model output shows many places getting into the 20`s overnight Thursday night/Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 35 53 41 / 0 0 10 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 34 50 38 / 0 0 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 54 33 51 38 / 0 0 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 27 48 34 / 0 0 0 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS/ABM

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