Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMRX 291916
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
316 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.SHORT TERM (tonight and tomorrow)...
The moisture on the outskirts of Bonnie that is bringing showers to
our NE sections will be shifting east this evening...and rain
chances should end by midnight. Clearing skies may lead to some
patchy fog forming in areas that receive rain today.
The NAM eagerly develops convection overnight along a boundary and
midlevel shortwave trough from OH through central KY. The GFS and
SREF also produce some light precip with this boundary/trough. There
is some elevated instability in the forecast soundings that may
support these storms as they approach our Plateau and SW VA
counties. Will have a slight chance pop north tomorrow morning with
a chance pop in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)...
Tropical depression Bonnie along the South Carolina/North Carolina
border monday evening...will continue to linger along the North
Carolina coast through early wednesday but will have little affect
on the forecast area. Showers and storms affecting the NE section of
forecast area on the outside edge of Bonnie will quickly dissipate
Monday evening so not including any showers/storms after 00Z. There
could be some residual cloud cover monday evening from Bonnie but
models show drier air mass to the west and this should move across
the TN valley early Tuesday so only slight chance showers and a few
storms Tuesday. Wednesday moisture increases a little with better
chance of showers and storms...but still more of a diurnal nature.
Temperatures will be very warm both days mid 80s to lower 90s.
Thursday cold front ahead of upper trough will be focus for
increased showers and storms. This frontal system to move only very
slowly east with better chance friday and then lingering into
saturday. Frontal system to stay just to the south again sunday.
Highs slightly cooler friday through the weekend due to clouds and
rainfall. No significant rainfall expected until thursday as cold
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 89 65 91 / 10 10 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 86 63 88 / 10 20 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 62 87 64 88 / 10 20 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 84 60 86 / 30 30 10 10