Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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989 FXUS64 KMRX 291916 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 316 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SHORT TERM (tonight and tomorrow)... The moisture on the outskirts of Bonnie that is bringing showers to our NE sections will be shifting east this evening...and rain chances should end by midnight. Clearing skies may lead to some patchy fog forming in areas that receive rain today. The NAM eagerly develops convection overnight along a boundary and midlevel shortwave trough from OH through central KY. The GFS and SREF also produce some light precip with this boundary/trough. There is some elevated instability in the forecast soundings that may support these storms as they approach our Plateau and SW VA counties. Will have a slight chance pop north tomorrow morning with a chance pop in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)... Tropical depression Bonnie along the South Carolina/North Carolina border monday evening...will continue to linger along the North Carolina coast through early wednesday but will have little affect on the forecast area. Showers and storms affecting the NE section of forecast area on the outside edge of Bonnie will quickly dissipate Monday evening so not including any showers/storms after 00Z. There could be some residual cloud cover monday evening from Bonnie but models show drier air mass to the west and this should move across the TN valley early Tuesday so only slight chance showers and a few storms Tuesday. Wednesday moisture increases a little with better chance of showers and storms...but still more of a diurnal nature. Temperatures will be very warm both days mid 80s to lower 90s. Thursday cold front ahead of upper trough will be focus for increased showers and storms. This frontal system to move only very slowly east with better chance friday and then lingering into saturday. Frontal system to stay just to the south again sunday. Highs slightly cooler friday through the weekend due to clouds and rainfall. No significant rainfall expected until thursday as cold front approaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 89 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 86 63 88 / 10 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 87 64 88 / 10 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 84 60 86 / 30 30 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS/TD

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