Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 031849 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 249 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTION...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITING THUNDER...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...SO WILL CARRY JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE CATEGORICAL SHOWERS. WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY WET...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING THE DRIEST. AS WITH YESTERDAYS LONG TERM FORECAST...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE IS STILL A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE DEVELOPED AND WETTER SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES RESEMBLE THE NAM A LITTLE MORE TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. SO WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE NAM ITSELF IS EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY. NOW THE NAM LINGERS THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA INTO MONDAY WHILE PREVIOUSLY IT HAD MONDAY DRIER. SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GREATER NOW ON MONDAY INSTEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY DIURNAL LOOK. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRIER THANKFULLY...ALBEIT BRIEF. DUE TO WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR CWA...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF BEING DRIER AND SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. WILL STILL LEAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES. BY WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS A NOW ZONAL FLOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 79 68 81 / 80 80 60 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 78 67 80 / 80 80 60 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 79 67 80 / 80 80 60 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 77 65 78 / 80 80 50 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE- BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK- HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS- MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN- SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER- SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION- WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT- WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ LW/SR

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