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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 191450
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1050 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN WEST
VA...WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION WITH A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE OVERALL...BUT THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
WEAK STEERING WIND FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH MAY KEEP THIS
CONVECTION CONFINED TO AROUND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT WILL PLAN
TO MENTION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE VALLEY AREAS SINCE THESE
NORTHEAST WINDS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION OUT INTO THE VALLEYS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL A
FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL AND AN INVERTED V PROFILE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...SO AM CONCERNED THAT SOME DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. THUS...WILL UPDATE THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY.

OVERALL...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO MENTION ISOLATED
CONVECTION EVERYWHERE...AND TO TWEAK TEMPS AND SKY CONDITIONS A
LITTLE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 64 89 67 89 / 20 20 20 10 20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 86 63 87 66 88 / 20 20 20 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 62 88 65 88 / 20 20 20 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 57 84 58 86 / 20 20 20 10 20-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DMG

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