Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 290814 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 414 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .Short Term (Today and Tonight)...
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Ridging between weather systems will mark the short term. Warm temperatures of 10-12 degrees above normal are expected, with fair weather. Light winds today will become southerly overnight. Upslope precipitation on the NC side of the mountains late tonight may flirt with TN mountain communities on the state line, but will maintain the non-mention of precip. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...Main concern is a strong upper trough lifting east fro the central/southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley Thursday and Thursday night. Strong jet streaks will move across the upper low across the Tennessee Valley with broad upper divergence across the Region. The circulation around these jets will produce strong upper forcing across the Tennessee/ Mississippi Valleys. In response to the upper forcing, a strong low-level jet will develop as well with 850mb winds of 50-60kts pulling abundant moisture/instability into the Tennessee Valley, especially the western and middle Tennessee. Very favorable environment for tornadoes development with good shear and thermodynamics over the western half of Tennessee Tennessee and Mississippi Valley with long-lived tornadoes anticipated. Main question for the Plateau and southeast Tennessee is if these tornadic supercells can make into this far east into lesser environment. CIPS analogs suggests there is a threat into the Plateau and southeast Tennessee with SPC pulling a slight risk into these areas. For the central Valley, there is a threat of damaging winds as these storms weaken with a marginal risk. For the northern half of Tennessee Valley into southwest Virginia, the strong southerly low-level jet will produce downsloping conditions limiting convection. The strong low-level jet combined with favorable thermodyanmic conditions will set the stage for mountain wave high winds for the far east Tennessee Mountains and foothills for late Thursday through early Friday morning. This system moves east of the area Friday morning, but wrap-around showers will continue for the northern/eastern areas Friday afternoon and night. Upper ridging returns for Saturday and Sunday with the next strong upper trough expected for Monday and Tuesday. Strong dyanmics with this system as well with showers and storms likely.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 58 80 59 / 0 10 30 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 55 76 57 / 0 10 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 77 55 77 57 / 0 0 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 50 73 54 / 0 10 20 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. TN...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...None.
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&& $$

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