Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 211859 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 259 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Sunday)..The high pressure at the surface and aloft over the region will be shifting east during the period, with moisture starting to increase ahead of the next system. Still mainly just varying amounts of high clouds except later in the period when some more significant clouds will start moving into south/southwest areas. Will include some patchy fog again late tonight mainly near bodies of water as has been the case these past few nights. Will make minor tweaks to MAV temps, mainly to lower most min temps for tonight. . .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)...At the start of the period the deep trough axis will be located generally over Missouri and Arkansas with the associated cold front approaching Middle Tennessee. The motion of the front will be slowly eastward as will the precipitation along the boundary. The southeasterly flow off the Appalachians will likely produce a rain shadow across much of northeast TN Sunday night whereas the southern TN Valley will have the best chance of measurable precipitation before sunrise Monday morning. However, shortly after sunrise expect showers to overspread the entire forecast area Monday. Model solutions today seem rather progressive in moving the precipitation out of the region fairly quickly (by late Monday night). The kicker system replaces this shortwave by Tuesday afternoon and will bring some much cooler air into the forecast area. If you thought it was warm for this time of year, you may miss those warmer days by Wednesday where the high temperatures will only be in the 40s and 50s! Any precipitation associated with this stronger trough could produce some snowflakes in the highest elevations while most lower elevations will experience liquid droplets Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Dry conditions prevail with gradual warming through the remainder of the week as the next storm system ramps up back to the west. Another frontal boundary will produce increasing chances for rain as early as Friday night through Sunday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 80 65 69 / 0 10 60 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 77 60 70 / 0 0 20 90 Oak Ridge, TN 52 79 61 68 / 0 0 20 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 77 56 67 / 0 0 10 90
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/AC

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