Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 210710 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 310 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...SHOWERS LOOK TO QUICKLY EXIT MOST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH REMNANT LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS NETN AND SWVA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE PULLS OFF TO OUR NE. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FORECAST. 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS WANT TO HOLD ON TO MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR THINGS OUT BY MID TO LATER AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO CLEAR THINGS. IN FORECAST WILL KEEP LESSER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AROUND 00Z BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED BUT STILL MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NETN AND SWVA. SO IF CLOUDS DON`T CLEAR ACROSS NETN AND SWVA BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER ALL DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CLEARING LATE IN THE NIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH TROUGH AXIS BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NETN...SWVA...AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD ON FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXITING OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE PATTERN OVERALL IS VERY SLUGGISH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE AREA...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND THEREBY SLOWING THE ONSET OF THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK. GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY...WITH DRY AREA-WIDE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DRY IN THE VALLEY ON MONDAY. POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE LATER PERIODS ONCE TROUGH/ LIFT/ DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BEHIND COLD FRONT IN EARLY PERIODS AND SHOULD WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS STEADY WARM MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF SETS UP. FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE PERIODS...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS AS SHEAR STAYS TO OUR NORTH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES STAY TO OUR WEST.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 50 76 55 / 10 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 48 74 53 / 10 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 47 75 53 / 10 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 45 72 47 / 40 10 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR/GM

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