Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 281904 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 301 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
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MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MRX CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOST CHANGES WERE MADE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLDER WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS WERE LOWERED BASED ON MODELS TRENDING TO THIS SOLUTION. THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW EASES OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... WITH SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY...SO INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO MIN/MAX TEMPS PRIOR TO AND AFTER THE WEEKEND...CLOSE TO SIMILAR GFSX AND ECMX MOS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 65 41 66 / 70 40 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 65 39 63 / 80 40 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 54 65 39 62 / 80 30 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 62 35 58 / 100 60 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/TG

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