Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 260729 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 329 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...Much of the forecast area was covered by low clouds on Tuesday which limited warming. However, subsiding air within a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern U.S. should keep skies full of sunshine forecast area wide today. The insolation and a strengthening southerly flow will boost temperatures a good ten degrees or more above highs reached on Tuesday. The Ozarks short wave and associated cool front will make its way east toward the Cumberland Plateau tonight and may move far enough east for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly over the plateau around sunrise. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...Timing of storms associated with a cold front appears to be slightly faster in the latest model runs. Both the NAM and GFS bring precip into our western sections by 12Z Thursday. The morning timing of the storm`s arrival and the NE track of the system should result in a weakening trend of storms as they move into East TN. Likely PoPs will be maintained in the forecast, but QPF should be relatively light with just a marginal threat of severe storms. A drier trend has developed in the models for Friday as the Atlantic ridge builds westward and disturbances in the SW flow aloft will stay to our northwest. Will lower PoPs Friday to just a slight chance as a few isolated afternoon storms cannot be ruled out yet. Temperatures will be well above normal in the deep SW flow, with highs reaching the upper 80s by Saturday. A closed low is shown by the models to track NE across the Plains states on Sunday, with storms ahead of the cold front affecting our area Late in the day. As with the previous system, its northeast motion will result in a weakening trend for us as the best forcing passes to our north. With good model agreement, will have likely PoPs for Sunday night. A cooler air mass finally builds in behind this system for Tuesday, bringing highs closer to normal. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 63 77 55 / 0 30 60 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 62 79 56 / 0 10 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 84 63 76 53 / 0 10 60 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 56 79 53 / 0 0 50 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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