Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 270717 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
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Another short-wave trough will move east from the southern Plains into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys late today and tonight. Jet dynamics places the Tennessee Valley under good divergence aloft. A boundary layer jet is also induced across the region with 850mb jet of 30-35kts. The low-level jet and some mid-level dry air may produce localized damaging winds. Hail CAPES up to 300 J/kg will also support small hail, possibly isolated quarter size with the stronger storms. The Plateau and central and southern Tennessee Valley have the greatest chance of strong to marginal severe storms late this afternoon and evening. Scattered/broken coverage of convection will continue overnight tonight. Besides the convection, another unseasonably mild day due to breezy southwest winds ahead of approaching upper trough. .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...Will begin the extended in an active weather pattern. Monday`s system will still over the region Tuesday morning...slowly exiting the area throughout the day. Some residual instability will be in place during the morning/early afternoon for scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. A few showers may linger into Tuesday night...but overall will transition it a brief dry period for Wednesday with weak ridging developing over the area. The next system moves in Thursday into Friday. Models continue to show differences in details of this system but in general agreement with timing and bringing in a band of showers and thunderstorms across the area. A few shower will remain over the area in Saturday with dry conditions expected late Saturday in Sunday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 59 77 55 / 50 60 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 57 74 53 / 30 60 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 75 58 74 53 / 40 70 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 53 72 51 / 40 60 70 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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