Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 200233 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 933 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .DISCUSSION...
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Isentropic lift leading to widespread low-level clouds to our southwest on the western periphery of a low-level ridge. Have increased cloud cover in the forecast to be closer in line with current observations and trends. Believe that the current RAP does a good job at initializing current cloud cover and showing it moving into our forecast area tonight and Saturday. With 925-850mb clockwise winds around the low-level ridge and the ridge axis extending through our forecast area, believe WNW winds and upslope flow conditions will be probable for the mountains late tonight and Saturday with a slight chance of some drizzle across the higher terrain because of the orographic lift. May even have some patchy freezing drizzle late tonight across the higher terrain as lift increases near sunrise. With cloud cover expected to arrive across NETN/SWVA/SWNC latest tonight, expect these areas to be the coldest tonight with efficient radiational cooling until the cloud cover increases late. If cloud cover does stick around during the day on Saturday as the RAP and NAM indicate, max temperatures may be several degrees below MAV MOS guidance.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 54 37 64 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 51 38 59 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 29 50 38 58 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 49 36 57 / 10 10 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ JB

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