Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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197 FXUS64 KMRX 221139 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 735 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .Aviation...
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An area of convection across middle Tennessee will continue to move toward the TAF sites this morning. Models depict a general weakening trend so coverage/intensity should dissipate, but will include vicinity thunder CHA/TYS and shower for TRI. Main concern is redevelopment this afternoon and continue through the evening. Due to the strength of upper forcing and moist/unstable airmass, some of these storms may be strong to possibly severe. MLCAPES of 1500 J/kg and PWs around 1.4 inches (which is near the daily max) will produce very heavy rains with the storms. Enough hail CAPE and mid-level dry air/850mb jet of 35kts to produce hail up to quarter size and potential of damaging winds with the stronger storms. Upper forcing will keep chance showers overnight tonight. Plenty of boundary layer moisture so ceilings will lower to MVFR conditions.
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains- East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins- Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke- Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN- Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter- Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union- Washington TN-West Polk. VA...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Lee-Russell-Scott-Washington-Wise. && $$

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