Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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716 FXUS64 KMRX 191855 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 255 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY INTO TOMORROW)...
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ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER AROUND FOR A BIT AND BE OUT OF HERE BY AROUND SUNSET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER PLACES THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN AND ALSO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG, BUT DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY IN VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. MOSTLY SUNNY AND RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO TOMORROW. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... MODELS IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM AND SOME RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES NOTED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AT BEST AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM STILL RATHER BULLISH WITH PRECIP THAT MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH IN. GFS QUITE A BIT DRIER. THINK NAM MAY BE OVERDONE AS MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WILL GO WITH MORE OF A NAM/GFS COMPROMISE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY SO MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED...MAYBE SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND THEN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD BE DRY INTO SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM. MAY BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES IN THE MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 84 62 79 / 10 10 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 81 60 76 / 10 10 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 81 59 76 / 10 10 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 77 54 74 / 10 10 20 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ ABM/LW

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