Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 040700 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 300 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU. OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ADVECTING IN HIGHER MOISTURE. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY FOR TRI-CITIES. IT WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NE TN AND SW VA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY WITH CAPE/SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SO AM EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALSO HELP TO BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80`S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND ONLY LOW TO MID 80`S ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, BUT ENOUGH WILL STICK AROUND ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL COME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 70 91 69 / 10 10 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 92 68 88 67 / 10 20 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 93 68 89 67 / 10 10 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 89 64 84 64 / 30 20 30 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AC/ABM

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