Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 232038 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 338 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
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MAIN EVENT TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE BIT OF EVERYTHING...BREEZY WINDS...THUNDERSTORMS...PSBL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. NEAR 100 PCT CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT...THEN RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OR SMALL STREAM ADVISORY TYPE OCCURRENCES UNDER LOCALIZED TRAINING OF RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS...BUT STILL WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 15-25 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST CLEARED THE AREA...AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AT 12Z...THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PASSED...AND RATHER THAN A SUPPORTING CLIPPER AS SO OFTEN HAPPENS...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD QUICKLY DURING THE DAY. SO THINK THAT THE POST-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AND PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIMITED...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED FOR MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY...SO PLANNING TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE ON SKY COVER. NOT PLANNING TO BRING DOWN MAX TEMPS VERY MUCH...AS CLEARING IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WILL DELAY WARMUP IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES. ALONG WITH THE QUICK RIDGING...MOISTURE SURGES BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME POPS ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS THIS PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY...THEN LIFT FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH KEEPS ELEVATES POPS AGAIN. THIS PRECIP LOOKS MOSTLY LIQUID...BUT POST-FRONTAL TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST TREND TOWARD A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM A CLIPPER.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 61 37 48 / 100 80 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 62 36 47 / 100 80 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 50 61 36 47 / 100 80 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 63 37 44 / 100 90 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ GC/GM

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