Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 170258 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 958 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .DISCUSSION...
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Accumulating snow has ended for most of the western half of the forecast area, so the Winter Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire. Did extend the advisory for the far eastern mountain zones because of expected residual precip along the mountains and into Johnson/Carter counties of NE TN until 12z. More recent mesoscale models and the NAM are showing the mid-level front at around 700mb providing sufficient lift for light precip along the mountains through 09z and tapering off to far NE TN in Johnson County by about 12z. However, do not expect much additional accumulation. With the cold temperatures and wind, wind chill values along the higher elevations of the plateau may get as low as 5 below to 15 below zero, so a Wind Chill Advisory has been continued for these areas. We have issued an SPS to account for the potential black ice/slick roads and very cold wind chills in all locations. Also, added scattered flurries for the remainder of the night and tomorrow. During the day Wednesday, the upper trough axis will pivot through the area with: 1) steep low- level lapse rates; 2) 850mb NNW winds from 5-15 kt; and 3) sufficient low- level moisture. Because of the DGZ reaching the surface with the cold air in place, any small amount of lift, including orographic lift, could result in some scattered snow flurries on Wednesday. Otherwise, made some adjustments to hourly grids based on current observations.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 11 25 14 39 / 70 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 10 22 10 36 / 80 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 9 25 9 36 / 70 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 13 21 9 34 / 80 10 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for Cherokee- Clay. TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Bradley- Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-McMinn-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Monroe-West Polk. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for East Polk- Hawkins-Northwest Carter-Northwest Greene-Southeast Monroe- Sullivan-Washington TN. Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ Wednesday for Bledsoe-Campbell-Marion-Morgan-Scott TN-Sequatchie. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Lee-Scott- Wise. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for Russell- Washington.
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&& $$ JB

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