Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 181902 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 302 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Thursday)...Surface high pressure will remain over the region as an upper ridge builds in during the short term period. The atmosphere will remain quite dry. Dewpoints/temps running higher today than yesterday, so should be slightly warmer tonight with less chance for any patchy frost. Some patchy fog can be expected late tonight especially near bodies of water. Tomorrow will feature plenty of sunshine and temperatures a bit higher than today. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)...A quiet start to the long term, but hold on to your hats because there`s some cold air headed back our way toward the end of the period. Riding is in place from Thursday night through Saturday night. During this period, expect clear to mostly clear skies along with calm conditions. Temps on Thursday night still a few degrees below normal as the airmass continues to modify. Temps will be in the low to mid 40s. On Friday we see temps continuing to slowly climb with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Friday night near normal temps in the mid to upper 40s. Saturday temps remain in the mid to upper 70s. On Saturday the ridge begins to amplify in response to an upper level trough digging down across the Central Plains. The low pressure center associated with this trough is well into Canada but the cold front sweeps down all the way into Texas! As of now though, Saturday looks to remain dry with pleasant conditions. Saturday night southerly flow begins to ramp up as the front draws closer. The actual precip doesn`t move in until later on Sunday and perhaps even holding off until Sunday night. Will have POPs slowly increasing through the day on Sunday from west to east. The best chance for POPs come on Monday. By this time, a closed off low has developed just to our west-southwest as the northern jet has separated itself from this system. The closed-off low rotates just to our south Monday night into Tuesday, which will therefore continue higher POP chances. We could also hear a few rumbles of thunder as we may have a storm or two across the area. On Tuesday we see another surge of cold air coming down out of Canada and into the Plains. This secondary trough will quickly catch up to the closed low and help move it along and out of our area by Tuesday afternoon. With this trough though comes the coldest air of the fall season. High temperatures on Wednesday, after the secondary frontal passage, will only be in the mid to upper 50s. These values are 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The lows Wednesday night will range from the mid to upper 30s with some areas dipping below the freezing mark. With the secondary trough and front moisture looks limited for our area and mainly stays north. However, wouldn`t be surprised to see a few snowflakes squeezed out across the higher elevations at some point as we see a NW flow pattern set up.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 75 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 74 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 74 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/SR

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