Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 030718 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 318 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CIRRO-STRATUS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE. LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY NEAR AREA LAKES/STREAMS. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAKNESS OR SHEAR AXIS IN THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THAT UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS SEEMS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE STATES. THUS...KEPT SIMILAR POPS FOR SUNDAY IN THE RANGE OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SEEMS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY OTHER DAY IN THE LONG TERM. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AS TYPICAL WILL BE THE FAVORED SPOTS...AS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. TRENDED ALONG THE LINES OF THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...BUT DID SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE "RAGGEDNESS" AND MESHED WELL WITH ADJACENT NWS GRIDS. FOR TEMPS...FELT THAT THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARMER/HOTTER GFS MOS MAXES ON FRIDAY...THEN A BIT COOLER ON SATURDAY CLOSE TO THE MOS BLEND. SUPERBLEND MOS MAXES/MINS LOOKED GREAT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 71 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 70 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 69 90 69 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 64 89 64 / 10 10 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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