Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 282210 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 610 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .DISCUSSION...
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UPDATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FORECAST. DUE TO GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN GFS...ECMWF AND NAM MODELS...DECIDE TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH CYCLO-GENESIS OVER CAROLINAS SATURDAY. END RESULT WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO...STRONG NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST/NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS THE FIRSTS SHOT OF WINTER-LIKE COLD WITH THE VERTICAL PROFILE BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A DISTINT POSSIBILITY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET...OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...PLACES LIKE THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH KNOB...VIRGINIA. A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI- CITIES AND KNOXVILLE AS WELL. DUE TO THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL FOR SATURDAY. WILL UPDATE HWO TO INCLUDE SNOWFALL CHANCES AND EXPECTED COLD WEATHER.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 65 41 66 / 70 40 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 65 39 63 / 80 40 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 54 65 39 62 / 80 30 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 62 35 58 / 100 60 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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