Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 121848 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 248 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday)...
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Elongated H5 ridge stretching from the NW Gulf Coast to the NC coast will keep generally fair weather in place over the area through the day Saturday. With lingering low level moisture, we may see isolated showers over the mountains, but little chance of such elsewhere. Temperatures will continue to run 10-15 degrees above normal to close out the week. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... The main focus in the long-term forecast will be the front expected to move through the area on Sunday. Models continue to struggle with the timing of the front. The GFS is the fastest of all of the models with the front coming through during the day on Sunday with the Canadian and ECMWF being later in the afternoon Sunday into the overnight hours. Regardless, not expecting much in the way of precipitation along the boundary with weak low level ridging ahead of the boundary. PW values ahead of the boundary will increase into the 1.4-1.5 inch range, which are near the 90th percentile for mid- October. Model soundings indicate some weak instability with SBCAPE values in the 250-750 J/KG on Sunday afternoon and have continued with a slight chance of thunder. Rainfall amounts with the boundary will be light with values ranging from a tenth to a quarter of an inch on average across the forecast area. Noticeably cooler air will advect into the SOuthern Appalachians to start the work week with temperatures on Monday around 10-15 degrees cooler than on Sunday. Highs on Monday will be cooler than climatological averages with highs in the 60s across most of the valley. Dry conditions are forecast throughout the work week with moderating temperatures as an upper level ridge builds in behind the departing trough. Highs will climb back up into the low to mid 70s by the middle of the week.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 83 63 84 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 57 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 81 56 81 / 10 10 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ GC/MA

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