Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 160713 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 313 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMDITIES AND FREEZE AND FROST CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. LIKEWISE... DRY AIR-MASS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS...WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN. MOST VALLEYS AND SHELTERED AREAS WILL SEE GOOD RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AREAS...FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS OF FROST IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A QUIET PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TWO WEAK COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH THE MODELS INDICATE WILL CUT OFF THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SECOND COLD FRONT ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THUS...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS WITH THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS... WILL GENERALLY TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 36 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 34 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 33 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 29 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL- CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON- MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE- RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN- UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON- NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN- UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN. FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE- EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON- MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION- WEST POLK. VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$

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