Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 020714 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 314 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL REMAIN WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 800MB CAP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. BESIDES THE NORTHEAST... OROGRAPHIC FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION. BESIDES THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING... OTHERWISE PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RIDGING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...RAIN CHANCES LOOK RATHER LIMITED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND LIKELY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND DIURNAL IN NATURE. SURFACE RIDGING AND WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PLAINS STATES UPPER RIDGE. STAYED FAIRLY TRUE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS AND MESHED WITH NWS NEIGHBORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. ONLY ALLOWED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE TN-NC LINE...THEN DRY FOR REST OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN NC...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS E-NE...BUT THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CARRIED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND...DUE TO THE E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP. ALSO...THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE IN A PRIME POSITION ON SATURDAY TO AID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...BUT HAS SHIFTED SE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY. THUS...I STRAYED A BIT FROM THE SUPERBLEND POPS ON SUNDAY (WHICH WERE 45 TO 60 PERCENT)...OPTING TO GO SLIGHTLY LOWER ON SUNDAY POPS FOR NOW. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUFFICIENT FOR NOW. NOT SURE HOW MUCH FORCING DEVELOPS...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES BECOME DIFFLUENT BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GFS MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD FOR EARLY PERIODS THEN FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 72 93 70 / 10 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 69 90 68 / 10 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 69 90 67 / 10 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 64 89 64 / 20 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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