Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 252006 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 257 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LAYER HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER. LIGHT WINDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. A MILD WARM UP ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...LONG TERM STARTS UNDER SLIGHT RIDGING BEFORE MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A INCOMING COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP SHOULD START IN THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THE CHANCE IS LOW AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS WANTS TO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT LATE SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/AND LIKELY NAM WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AROUND THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE MAJORITY HERE AND KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THAT NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 40`S AND LOWS IN THE 30`S TO UPPER 20`S. THEN LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 30 58 36 56 / 0 0 10 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 56 33 58 / 0 0 0 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 28 55 32 55 / 0 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 23 56 29 59 / 0 0 0 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/ABM

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