Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 011857 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 257 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SHORT TERM... LESS CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE VALLEY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED US TO WARM UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 80`S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS SHOULD HELP KEEP MORE OF THE FOG AWAY OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS THE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO US. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS PRETTY PATHETIC THIS AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES TO REMAIN DRY, BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. TOMORROW LOOKS TO TELL A SIMILAR STORY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 90`S IN SOME PLACES IN THE VALLEY AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY...AND IS PROBABLY A BIT FAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVERALL. MAY STILL BE CAPPED ENOUGH IN THE VALLEY THURSDAY TO KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY...SO WILL JUST CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION CHANCES A BIT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT CHANCES STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST BY THE LATTER PERIODS...BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR WEAK CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 91 71 90 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 89 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 90 70 88 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 88 65 86 / 10 20 10 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ ABM/LW

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