Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 191852 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 252 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY FORCING IS MOVING OUT. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA. APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRYING TO ALLOW SOME SUN ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT MAV MAX TEMPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND VERY WET GROUND...BUT NOT MUCH ARGUMENT WITH MAV MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HELP TO PROMOTE SOME CLEARING AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER. HOWEVER...WITH ABOUNDANT GULF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...A FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS...REASONABLE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER/PRECIPIATION WILL FORM OVER THE CAROLINAS AND COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON TOP OF THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY THAT FORMS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND A BRIEF WARMING TREND. OVERALL THOUGH...HIGHS THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 86 69 88 / 30 40 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 85 67 87 / 40 40 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 85 67 88 / 40 40 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 83 64 84 / 50 40 20 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ LW/AMP

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