Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 281857 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 257 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS ANY REMAINING CAPPING INVERSION HAS ERODED AT MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER NOT SEEING MUCH IF ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND ACTUALLY JUST WEAK CONVERGENCE NOTED ON THE PLATEAU AND ACROSS WRN NC. OPTED TO LEAVE IN A SLIVER OR TWO OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ERN MTNS AND NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING. DRY ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOG...SIMILAR TO WHERE FOG OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO LAST NIGHT`S MINS FOR FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS MOS. OUR DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIE OVER NRN AREAS AND LIFT NORTH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO LEFT LOW POPS IN PLACE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40 ON FRIDAY. NO REAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT I KEPT SPOTTY MINIMAL EVENING POPS FOR NRN HIGH TERRAIN AND SW VA. MODELS ALL SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID AND UPR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON MEASURABLE RAINS AS FAR NE AS TRI AND SW VA BY 31/00Z. PREFERRED TO HOLD OFF A BIT FOR THOSE AREAS...IN LINE WITH THE DRIER GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW. PUSHED POPS AROUND CHA VICINITY UP TO 50 PERCENT BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPS...NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A NICE DEEP COLUMN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE DRIVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND EVENT TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE FORECAST AREA AWAITS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND POSSIBLE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY WEDNESDAY. RAISE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. STAYED A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER MEX MOS MAXES WHILE TRENDING QUITE CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MINS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 93 68 88 / 10 10 10 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 90 67 89 / 10 10 10 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 91 66 87 / 20 10 10 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 89 62 89 / 10 20 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG

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