Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 291912 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 310 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER CHILLY JULY NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT WITH RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS THE STRATO CU DISSIPATES AND WINDSPEED DIMINISHES. THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. WOULD EXPECT MORE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE DAY. STAYED JUST UNDER MAX TEMP GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S NORTH. SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY WARM INTO THE MID 80S. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONGER TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHY AND ALSO BY A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE MODEL RUNS IT APPEARS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD TAKE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 85 62 86 / 0 0 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 81 61 85 / 0 0 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 82 59 85 / 0 0 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 79 52 84 / 0 0 10 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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