Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 050734 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS MIDDLE TN HAS BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND EAST CENTRAL TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN UP TO ABOUT ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES WITH ACTUAL MEASURED AMOUNTS MOSTLY ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR AND 1 TO 1.3 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LAST 3 HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING OUT OF AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TN THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES THIS WEEK BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LOW OR SHIFT IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT BEFORE PRODUCING MORE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN AND THEN NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE RAIN BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST SUNSET TONIGHT. IF THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL ONE MORE DAY...MOSTLY 70S WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTHEAST. THE CHATTANOOGA AREA WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 80S AGAIN. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LOW THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHEAST LOCATIONS AS IT PULLS AWAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AS WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WITH SUNSHINE AND RECENT RAINS...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. THE NAM BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS ZONAL FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM SOLUTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE GFS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...EITHER ONE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE CURRENT GFS RUN DIFFERS FROM PRIOR RUNS AS NOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GFS DOES BEGINS TO BUILD THE RIDGE INTO THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE WELL IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW UNTIL THE MODEL BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS SCENARIO. THIS WILL BRING ON A MINOR WARMING TREND WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 68 88 70 / 80 40 40 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 66 84 67 / 90 50 40 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 78 66 84 67 / 90 40 40 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 65 82 64 / 90 70 50 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE- BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK- HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS- MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN- SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER- SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION- WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT- WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ TD/MJB

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