Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 271341 AAB AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 941 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .DISCUSSION...
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BANDS OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WELL TO THE WEST...THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY DRAPED FROM CLARKSVILLE TO MEMPHIS AND IS GRADUALLY CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. HOWEVER... DO THINK THAT WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING FOR MOST PLACES TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES...OR CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. THIS SUBTLE HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...WITH CAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE AOA 1000 J/KG BY 21Z. AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THE MUCH STRONGER WIND SHEAR OF 40-50+ KTS AND THIS MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP A LINE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS GIVEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES AND THE DRIER AIR PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD HELP TO ACCELERATE DOWNDRAFTS AS THEY APPROACH THE SURFACE...INCREASING THE DOWNBURST THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE MUCH LOWER TODAY...AND WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PRESENT...A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY OF THIS MID AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION AS WELL.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 63 87 62 / 90 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 60 82 60 / 90 20 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 80 59 84 58 / 90 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 58 80 54 / 90 40 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AMP

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