Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 050715 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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TODAY AND TONIGHT WEAK EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WRN VA ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE 250MB JET SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER SW NC AND THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXTEND INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WANING LATER IN THE NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S SOUTH TO LOWER 80S NORTH. SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY LEADING TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR IS BROUGHT IN. WILL STILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AS WE START THE WORK WEEK AS A SEMI MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THIS PATTERN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE SHIFT PATTERNS. A FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT MODELS HAVE HAD A BIT OF A TOUGH TIME DECIDING ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FRONT. THEY HAVE CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT TO THE POINT WHERE SOME ARE SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER US, OR JUST TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD BRING IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WE HAVE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIGHT OVER US. WILL NOT IMMEDIATELY BUY WHOLE HOG WITH THIS SOLUTION DUE TO RUN- TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES, BUT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. IF THIS SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 69 88 68 / 30 20 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 68 85 67 / 40 20 40 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 68 86 67 / 30 20 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 63 84 64 / 30 20 30 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AC/ABM

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