Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 250736 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 336 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
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Area of convection across Illinois and NW Indiana continues to push SE toward the Ohio Valley this morning. Latest radar and surface analysis indicates some spotty showers out ahead of the convection along an outflow boundary. This boundary can be expected to aid convective development across the area later this afternoon and evening. With MLCAPE ranging from 1000-2000 J/Kg and SFC-6 km bulk shear values barely reaching 15 kts anywhere across the area, do not expect any severe storms across the area. However, with PW values approaching 2.0 inches and the expected slow storm motion, the possibility for localized flooding with any storm development is possible. With the approaching frontal boundary over KY tonight, prospect of showers and thunderstorms during the overnight are possible. Given increasing zonal flow and stronger westerlies re-establishing, afternoon convection tied to the front N of the area may push into the CWA for the overnight hours. .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday) Overall...will be in an active weather pattern throughout the extended. On Tuesday...flow aloft will become zonal as the high pressure that has dominated our weather dampens over the area. A weak boundary will then approach from the north. It will hang up across KY Tuesday afternoon and will aid afternoon convective development across the area. The boundary will slowly settle south into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models show differences in timing and the extent of the boudnary`s southward movement. Regardless of the exact position of the boundary...its effect will be to continue to act as a focus for occasional scattered convection. This pattern should continue through Thursday. With low level moisture in place and light wind field for slow moving storms...locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day. Also...with the boundary moving into the area...temperatures should cool slightly. Friday through the rest of the extended will see a shallow upper trough move in. A weak frontal boundary and short wave will accompany the trough for continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 74 95 75 / 30 40 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 73 92 74 / 30 40 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 94 74 92 74 / 30 40 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 70 90 71 / 30 40 50 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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