Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 150756 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 256 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Tonight)... With the front off to our southeast we are seeing colder air funneled in from the northwest today. This will lead to a decrease in temperatures on the order of 5-10 degrees when compared with yesterday. Low level winds will be out of the southwest which should help off-set a bit of the coldest temperatures. A little bit of mid level moisture is still lingering behind the front which means we should have a few clouds out there early this morning, but the moisture will push off leading to clearing skies during the daytime hours. Warmer air will begin to move in overnight, so the below average temperatures should only last for today before we warm up tomorrow. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday night)... Models remain in very good agreement on the weather system for Sunday as shortwave energy rides NE out of Texas across a building middle level ridge over the Southeast US. Low level southerly flow ahead of this system on Saturday night into Sunday morning should greatly limit any frozen pcpn to the pre-dawn hours on Sunday with no accumulations expected before any mixed pcpn becomes all liquid by mid morning. Continued low level southerly flow coupled with weak ridging aloft will help to keep temperatures about 5-10 degrees above normal from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Although bulk of moisture remains south of the area for the start of the work week, chance pops remain as the southern branch of the jet remains active with a series of shortwave troughs moving across the southern quarter of the area Monday and Tuesday. Given above normal temps and persistent WAA, no frozen pcpn is expected. Cold front finally pushes through very early Tuesday evening. Associated cold air lags well behind the front with temperatures Wednesday still expected to be slightly above normal for mid December. Solution to late week system is gaining confidence with the latest runs as GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF are all in fair agreement on position of surface cold front into Middle TN by the end of the forecast period.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 28 53 35 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 27 52 31 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 42 27 51 30 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 24 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ ABM/EJH

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