Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 250653 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 253 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS THE LESSER AMOUNTS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG THUS FAR TODAY. OPTED TO CARRY PATCHY FOG BEYOND DAYBREAK BUT BACKED OFF ON 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISBY WORDING. KEPT THE CONTINUITY OF PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE TN-NC LINE...BUT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY...SHOULD BE TRACKING SE AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND/OR TYPICAL VALLEY SPOTS SUCH AS MURPHY NC (RHP). MOS MAX/MIN TEMPS WERE QUITE CLOSE AND I GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GFS MOS OR A SLIGHT BLEND. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SE US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY IN SW VA...NE TN...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST TN. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH EACH NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS OF LIFT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF I-40. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY SO LEFT CHANCE POP IN EACH DAY. THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN US...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING SE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MODELS ARE A BIT EXCITED KEEPING CONVECTION IN...SO LEFT IN JUST CHANCE POP THROUGH FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 71 92 73 / 10 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 70 89 71 / 10 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 91 68 91 70 / 10 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 90 63 86 66 / 10 0 10 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/JW

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