Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240853 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 353 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...INTERESTING FORECAST TODAY AS A STRONG JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE AREA PLACING THE REGION UNDER THE FAVORED DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE JET STREAK ENHANCES THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. BOUNDARY LAYER WAS INITIALLY DRY...BUT HAS MOISTEN UP QUICKLY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. PREFER GOING WITH THE SREF/HRRR WHICH SHOWS HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. HAVE EXPANDED BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA FOR TODAY WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS/SW NC AND 1 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WE RAMP UP FOR ANOTHER TRICKY ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WILL KICK OUT OF TEXAS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, AND A LOT OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS LOW. RIGHT NOW PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS AND THE NAM. NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE LOW STRONGER AND ALONG A FURTHER NORTH TRACK INTRODUCING COLDER TEMPS AND MUCH MORE SNOW IN OUR AREA. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WANT TO BROADEN THE TROUGH OUT CAUSING IT TO LOSE SOME ENERGY AND MOST OF THE PRECIP STAYS OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IF THIS SOLUTION OF THE NAM VERIFIES THEN WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BEING IN THE EAST AND ALONG THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. IF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN VERIFY THE EASTERN VALLEY AND SMOKIES WILL STILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIP, BUT IT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER AMOUNTS VERIFYING, BUT WILL MENTION IT IN THE H.W.O. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME WEAK ENERGY AND LIGHT MOISTURE TO COMBINE TO GIVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BUT AT THIS TIME NOTHING MAJOR LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS. TEMPS WILL START A WARMING TREND (FINALLY) AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO COME AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH THAT (HOPEFULLY) THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AND REMAIN ALL LIQUID ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 26 41 29 / 60 0 50 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 22 39 32 / 80 10 30 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 39 23 39 28 / 60 0 30 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 19 36 27 / 80 10 20 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE- CLAY. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-NW BLOUNT- NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON- SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR BLEDSOE-HAMILTON-MARION-MEIGS-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE- RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$

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