Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240859 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 359 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE 24/00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS AND LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED TO SW ACROSS THE REGION...AND GUSTS IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS SHOULD BE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AT THIS TIME. THUS...OPTED TO DROP THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND REPLACE WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE BOARD. TIMING THE END OF THE ADVISORY SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AROUND 18Z IN WRN COUNTIES AND 21Z FOR EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE MINIMAL FOR TODAY...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. VERY MILD TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE 60S...GENERALLY CLOSE TO GFS MAXES. COOLER GFS MOS MINS GOOD FOR TONIGHT IF WINDS DROP OFF. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF TO MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT GFS/ECMWF STILL WANTING TO DEVELOP LOW FROM GULF INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS THERE WITH MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SOME COLD RAIN ELSEWHERE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MOUNTAINS. HIGHS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY 30S TO LOWER 40S BUT WARMER TO THE WEST. ANY SNOW WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT AFFECT TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH SHORTWAVE PRODUCES A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF REGION. PRECIPITATION MOSTLY A LIGHT RAIN BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHER PRESSURE THEN REGAINS CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL STAY TO THE NW. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 50S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 36 55 34 / 20 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 36 52 35 / 20 10 0 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 36 52 34 / 20 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 36 49 32 / 20 20 10 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NW BLOUNT- NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI- WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HAMILTON-MARION- MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION. VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ TG/TD

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