Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 152036 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 336 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
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CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS PRESENT THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO OCCUR. AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES...A STRONG INVERSION SETS UP. COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER HERE AND THERE DUE TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TOMORROW ...THE FRONT WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE EXITING THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN. MODELS AGREE ON A VERY WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...ZIPPING ON THROUGH...WILL ONLY HAVE MINIMAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND EVEN TAPERING OFF NORTH. THEN A LARGE SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF ITS PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY EXIT TIMING...BUT SHOULD BE LEAVING BY SUNDAY. WEATHER GRID WAS QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH THE MODELS SO DIFFERENT...BUT GENERALLY KEPT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE VALLEY MOSTLY RAIN DURING THIS SYSTEM...WHEREAS FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW. EURO PLACEMENT LOOKS MORE THREATENING WITH SYSTEM DIVING FARTHER SOUTH...WHEREAS IF THE GFS IS CORRECT MOST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE OVERALL.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 55 38 52 / 70 20 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 54 36 51 / 80 30 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 53 36 50 / 80 20 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 37 53 35 49 / 70 50 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ JW/GM

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