Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 171957 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 257 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Saturday)... Clouds move in tonight and tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This will keep overnight lows mild, only dipping into the 40s across the majority of the area. For Saturday, south-southwest winds ahead of the cold front will increase throughout the day, producing breezy conditions across much of the area by the afternoon hours. This fast southerly flow will also help temperatures warm into the mid 60s Saturday afternoon before the overnight cold frontal passage. Rainfall chances will gradually increase across the Plateau Saturday afternoon/evening, but the majority of the rainfall should hold off until after nightfall as we transition to the long term period. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)... Focus of the long term will be from Saturday night through Sunday as this is where all the action is, then pretty quiet for the rest of the period. Cold front is quickly approaching to begin the period with models showing the front across middle TN. There will be a well defined line of showers moving through the area with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms but soundings still show weak instability. The biggest threat with this line will be strong and gusty winds due to a strong 850 jet screaming through the area. Any heavier showers moving through could transport stronger wind gust down to the surface but the main source of the winds will be from the tight pressure gradient. A wind advisory starts in the short term period and carries into the long term period ending 08Z Sunday. It looks like the highest winds will occur across the higher elevations. Models still show the front to our east by midnight with much colder air pouring in behind the front. Lingering moisture will transition over to snow showers across the highest elevations where up to half an inch of snow is still possible. A few flurries may be possible across the lower elevations of extreme NETN and up into SWVA. Precip generally ends Sunday morning as much drier air moves in. Highest elevations could hold onto light precip into early Sunday afternoon as upslope flow wrings out any remaining moisture. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to upper 40s with calmer winds than Saturday but still breezy. With overcast skies through much of the day, cold temps, and breezy conditions, wind chill values will range from the upper 30s to low 40s during the afternoon hours with values down into the upper teens across the highest peaks, above 5000 feet. High pressure slowly builds back in on Monday and Tuesday with gradual warming temps but another trough and weak front move through on Wednesday. Still keeping Wednesday precip free as little moisture is present with this system. Thanksgiving and Friday continue to look nice as of now with highs in the lower to mid 50s.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 66 40 49 / 0 60 90 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 66 40 47 / 0 40 90 10 Oak Ridge, TN 47 64 39 47 / 0 60 90 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 64 38 44 / 0 30 90 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 3 AM EST Sunday for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Saturday to 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ Sunday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains- Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk- Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson- Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk. VA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 3 AM EST Sunday for Lee- Russell-Scott-Washington-Wise.
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&& $$ EMH/SR

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