Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 251927 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 327 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)... INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AT MID AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY AS CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. NO SHOWERS OR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED YET BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST TN AND SOUTHWEST NC. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE FOG ACROSS SW NC. STILL GOING A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE ON LOWS AS WE HAVE NOT HAD MUCH RAIN THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND GROUND IS STILL QUITE DRY. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...GULF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND A FRONT TO THE NORTH IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT EXTREME NORTHERN TN AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY BUT THESE MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. OTHER DAY TIME HEATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS FARTHER SOUTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE 40 PERCENT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT AS A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY. WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL TRAVEL TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A LINE(S) OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN PLATEAU ALONG THE VA/TN/KY BORDER AREA THROUGH 03-06Z ON WEDNESDAY. THIS STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL WANE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GENERALLY FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME STRONG/ WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT MORE LIMITED IN THIS EVENING GIVEN THE TIMING...BUT THINK THAT A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. THEREAFTER...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND PROVIDE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WAVES OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STOUT UPPER- TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... BRINGING IN ANOTHER FRONT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME GOOD WETTING RAINS FOR THE DRY SOIL. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY TO SHOW GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS COVERAGE/SCENARIO ALREADY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 84 63 83 / 10 10 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 83 62 83 / 10 10 30 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 59 83 60 83 / 10 20 30 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 82 58 81 / 10 20 50 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TD/AMP

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