Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 230715 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 315 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and tonight)...The frontal boundary across the ohio valley will sag a bit closer during the period. Some weak short wave energy will be moving across the region later today/tonight, and remnants of outflow boundaries from northern convection will likely be in our vicinity as well. This combined with considerable convective energy should provide a more active day with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and the first part of tonight. Some of the storms this afternoon/evening may become strong to severe, so will mention this threat in the HWO. It will be hot and humid again today, but heat index values should top out below heat advisory criteria. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)...An upper trough will mercifully press gradually east across the northeastern corner of the nation, helping to push a cool frontal boundary through the Southern Appalachian Region. The boundary will not entirely drift south of the forecast area and may become stationary over Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina. Thus, the probability of convection will gradually decrease from north to south Monday into Wednesday as the front hangs up near the Georgia border. Another upper trough will build southeast out of Canada through the Eastern U.S. late in the week. The probability of cooling showers and thunderstorms will increase again later Thursday through Friday night as an associated cool front presses south across the forecast area. The heat will briefly return mid week along with the decreasing chance for convection however, some temperature relief can be expected again Friday into Saturday with the front, precipitation, and week northerly flow behind the boundary.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 76 89 74 / 30 50 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 73 88 72 / 40 60 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 93 74 89 72 / 40 60 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 69 88 68 / 60 60 20 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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