Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 300754 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 350 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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RADIATION IN THE CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM. SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE NEAR WATER BODIES AND WILL DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SO ADDED A BIT OF THIS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY TODAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE APPROACH AND WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ON THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU JUST BEFORE 12Z. STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF MOS NUMBERS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE MAIN CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN IMPACT FRIDAY EVENING. PEAK QG FORCING AND FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCUR IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME...WHICH IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FAVORABLE NW FLOW SNOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AROUND 25 KTS... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCAL TERRAIN. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING LOWERING POPS AND QPF BY SATURDAY EVENING. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR TN MOUNTAIN ZONES AS WELL AS WISE...RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VA WITH WORDING TO SPECIFY ELEVATIONS 2500 FT AND HIGHER. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE THAT LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES...WITH AROUND A FOOT IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES. THIS IS A BIT BELOW THE NAM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL MELTING WITH THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR. FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 41 62 35 / 0 0 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 39 59 33 / 0 10 60 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 39 58 33 / 0 10 60 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 35 56 32 / 0 0 80 90
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON- SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE- UNICOI. VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.
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&& $$ 20/24

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