Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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654 FXUS64 KMRX 310656 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 256 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Tonight)...We will remain under the influence of a broad upper ridge for the short term period. Convective energy looks more limited today...especially outside the eastern mountains. For now will keep the eastern mountain convection in the forecast with areas west precip free. May be a lingering shower or thunderstorm in the eastern mountains early tonight...otherwise should be mainly some high/mid clouds around. MAV temps look reasonable overall once again so will stay close. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)...Upper ridge will continue to dominate area weather for one more day. So, will see a typical summer pattern on Wednesday with warm afternoon highs in the mid 80s to around 90 and afternoon diurnal convection focused over higher terrain. Then...model consistency has been poor with timing of an approaching cold front Thursday into Friday. Current trend is for the front to move into the area Thursday night into Friday. Ahead of the front...expect the air mass to destabilize...allowing scattered convection to develop across the area Friday. The main organized line of thunderstorms will push through Thursday night into Friday. Not a lot of upper level support...but with cape values around 1000 J/KG...could see a stray strong storm both Thursday and Friday. Generally...models have then either slowed significantly or stalled the boundary over the region. This boundary will continue to act as a focus of additional thunderstorm development through the weekend with improving conditions expected for Monday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 66 89 68 / 10 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 65 88 67 / 10 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 89 64 88 67 / 10 10 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 60 85 64 / 10 10 20 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/MJB

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