Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 200752 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 252 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Tonight)... Surface high pressure over West/Middle TN this morning will shift east to the NC Piedmont through the period, while the flow aloft will shift from a NW flow this morning to a W-SW flow tonight. Clear and dry conditions will prevail in the NW flow today. Wtih full sun, highs will be 6-8 degrees above yesterday, generally in the 50s. Shallow low level moisture may start to increase late tonight as the 850 mb flow turns to the SW and warm advection picks up, with lows in the 30s expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)... The extended will be characterized by generally dry west to northwest flow aloft and persistent surface ridging. The GFS and ECMWF keep the main storm tracks well north along the Canadian/United States border and far southeast United States with little to no synoptic forcing over the Tennessee Valley. For Tuesday, a storm system moving across the Great Lakes will pull a frontal boundary souht across the area Tuesday night. Boundary layer moisture does get pulled north ahead of this front Tuesday producing mostly cloudy sky for TYS/CHA, but limited moisture, so generally dry frontal passage. For Wednesday through Friday night, surface ridging and dry northwest flow aloft will produce dry conditions and seasonal temperatures. For Saturday, another dry frontal boundary moves across the southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley as Gulf moisture remains well south and east of the area. The frontal passage brings chilly and dry conditions for Sunday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 37 60 39 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 36 59 40 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 53 36 58 39 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 29 59 37 / 0 0 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS/DH

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