Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 211847 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 247 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
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VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL MARK THE NE HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE FEWER CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SW HALF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS INTO PLAY. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL AND HAVE PRETTY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AS WELL...WITH A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN DEPICTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTHEAST INTO WED NIGHT AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY AND COLD ADVECTION EASES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS WILL BE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...SO WILL JUST HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...SO DRY WITH SOME WARMING.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 44 66 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 41 61 39 66 / 10 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 41 60 37 67 / 10 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 56 37 63 / 10 10 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ GC/LW

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