Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 241856 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 256 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SHORT TERM (Tonight and Tuesday)...
-- Changed Discussion --
As an upper low slowly tracks northeast across the Carolinas tonight...a few isolated light showers may rotate into far northern and eastern areas. Otherwise...high pressure building in will provide a quiet night with dry conditions. The area flooding and river levels will continue to recede over the next several hours but will see a few locations with ongoing areal flooding and river flooding through at least the evening hours. With recent rainfall...expect patchy fog to develop across the region late tonight. Improved conditions are expected on Tuesday with the high pressure in control for a dry day with decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures. .LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)... Upper level ridge is finally allowed to build in across the area for Tuesday night and Wednesday before being forced east by approaching shortwave trough which drops SE out of Colorado and into lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday morning before lifting NE across middle TN Thursday night. Flow aloft remains predominately SW through the weekend, before the next, stronger shortwave drops SE out of the Rockies by Monday. Models are in fair agreement on the timing of the frontal system on Thursday with best rain chances expected in the afternoon and early evening before this boundary quickly washes out by Friday morning. Both GFS and NAM now indicating enough instability/shear Thursday afternoon that strong to isolated severe storms could be possible. MLCAPE values range from 800-1400 J/kg by afternoon with bulk shear on the order 30-35 kt which will allow for some organization of any storms that develop. As with most severe weather in East TN, timing is everything, slightly earlier/later and enough instability may not be available. At this point, it certainly bears watching over the next few days. Friday will see a warm front push NE through the area that will increase POPs through Friday night, before some drying in advance of our next cold front on Monday which, at present, looks like it is being handled consistently in the GFS, ECMWF, and the GFS Ensemble. This system is expected to once again bring a widespread round of pcpn to the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 78 57 85 / 10 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 76 56 85 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 53 76 56 85 / 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 73 52 84 / 30 10 10 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ MJB/EJH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.