Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 161916 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 316 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today into tomorrow)...
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We continue to see mid level ridging over the area, similar to what we saw yesterday, so in general, will continue with a mostly persistence forecast when it comes to temperatures this afternoon into tomorrow. Already seeing some scattered thunderstorms out there, with the better chances expected to be in the higher terrain of the area. With PW values pushing 2 inches in some places we could see some of these storms produce brief heavy rain with some isolated flooding possible. But due to the isolated to scattered nature of this convection am not expecting widespread flooding this afternoon/tonight. Showers will start to dissipate with the setting sun, with another round of patchy fog possible in the typical valley locations and places that receive abundant rainfall this afternoon. Once again similar weather is expected tomorrow with near normal temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms once again. .LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)... A weak cold front will push through the Southern Appalachian Region Thursday night into Friday. Abundant low level moisture will be in place with PWs near 2 inches but the air mass will be only weakly unstable. There is some upper level support but it is not particularly impressive. So...overall will see a line of convection move across the area in advance of the front but do not anticipate much potential for strong or severe storms. Drier air and surface high pressure moves in behind the exiting front late Friday into Saturday. Models do show a short wave moving across the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Much of the associated moisture and energy should stay to our north and it should have minimal effect on area weather. Low level moisture begins to return to the area on Sunday so...may see normal summertime diurnal type convection develop...mainly confined over higher elevations. For Monday...the day of the eclipse...weak surface high pressure will be over the general region providing a few clouds and isolated to scattered diurnal convection is possible late in the afternoon. For Tuesday and Wednesday...will move back to a more unsettle weather pattern. A boundary will lift north into the area Tuesday with a cold front approaching the area Wednesday for a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 91 75 89 / 20 40 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 88 73 88 / 20 50 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 73 89 73 88 / 20 50 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 88 69 86 / 20 50 40 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ ABM/MJB

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