Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 220809 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 409 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE TODAY. UPPER LOW OVER SE AL WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SW. CYCLONIC LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL A EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF MRX CWA TODAY. LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES NEARING 2.00 ACROSS TN/GA BORDER. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE. ELSEWHERE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL WANE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY WARM OVERNIGHT READINGS. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN STATES WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER NE PART OF COUNTRY. ALSO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION THERE. COLD FRONT OVER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. GFS AND NAM DIFFER WITH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT FRONT PRODUCES AND TIMING. NAM DRIER THAN GFS. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WANT TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EARLIER. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. MODELS PUSH FRONT THROUGH DURING DAY THURSDAY WITH DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOLER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS AIR MASS FROM CANADA MOVES SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. SATURDAY FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYS AND NIGHTS THE OTHER DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 71 89 71 / 60 30 50 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 69 87 69 / 30 20 50 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 87 69 87 69 / 30 10 50 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 66 86 64 / 30 10 50 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/TD

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