Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 291910 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 310 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...BASED ON LATEST RADAR/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DID DECIDE TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THOUGH. UNSETTLED SHORT TERM AHEAD. WEAK UPPER LOW STILL CENTERED ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS THIS LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AND MERGES WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS MERGER BETWEEN FEATURES SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY THUS FAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A RIPPLE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH MOISTURE PUMPED IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH KEEPS MOVING OUT WE GET RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. AS OF THIS WRITING, TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA HAS DISSIPATED INTO JUST A TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE NOT CAUGHT ON TO THIS FACT JUST YET, SOME OF THEM STILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. WILL GENERALLY GO BELOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT MODELS SPIT OUT, AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITATION IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE IN WITH ERIKA. GFS IS VERY WET NEXT WEEK WITH REMNANT MOISTURE HANDING AROUND THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AS IT KEEPS WETTEST AIR SOUTH AND EAST OF US, WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF. BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LONG TERM SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. SO AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK HIGHS START TO REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80`S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 81 66 86 / 30 50 30 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 82 64 84 / 20 40 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 82 65 85 / 20 40 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 81 61 84 / 10 40 30 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR/ABM

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