000
FXUS65 KMSO 240957
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST WAVE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS DRAWING TO
AN END ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING. THOUGH IT REMAINS
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THESE SHOWERS, ONLY
TRACE AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED AND THUS THE WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS (ADVISORIES AND WARNING) WILL BE CANCELLED. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW, PRESENTLY KICKING OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL IDAHO LATER THIS
MORNING AND NORTHWEST MONTANA SHORTLY AFTER THE NOON HOUR. THE AIR
MASS WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING TODAY WHICH WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE. AS A RESULT, THE PRECIPITATION WHICH FALLS FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, EXCEPT FOR OVER
LOOKOUT PASS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS LIKELY ALL DAY. MODELS ARE
KEYING IN ON SOME DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT
BEHIND THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE WHICH COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
TAKE A NOSE DIVE AFTER SUNSET. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT SO ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONS MAY
BE NECESSARY TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

AT LEAST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE NICE WITH
SATURDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL (WHICH IS IN THE 60S)
ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEYS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT OF LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT. HOWEVER THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY
APPEAR TO BE NEARLY AS NICE WITH MODELS ALL SUGGESTING AN UPTICK
IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY IS GREATLY
LACKING WITH EACH MODEL DISPLAYING DIFFERING TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE NEXT ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE. SO AT THIS TIME WILL TAKE A
MORE BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH EITHER A BROAD, BAGGY TROUGH OR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHING PERIODIC DISTURBANCES OUR WAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BEST NEAR NORMAL BUT LIKELY AT TIMES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE. A BETTER ORGANIZED AND
STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER BOUT OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND AT KBTM WILL
BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING AS THE LAST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH A WEAKER
WEATHER FEATURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WHICH MAY AT
TIMES IMPACT KGPI AND KMSO WITH BRIEF SHOWERS, SLIGHT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AND LOWERING OF CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT OF GREATER
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRFIELDS BEGINNING
AFTER 24/1900Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS AT KMSO, KBTM AND KSMN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
AROUND 25/0300 WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LAYER CLOUDS
LINGERING TILL MORNING.

&&

NOTE: FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE LISTED BELOW.

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$